Featured Articles / Ben Lyttleton / 28 May 2008 / Leave a comment

Ben Lyttleton tells us why France won't be able to excuse fatigue as an excuse if they crash out early doors and why Italy's players go into the tournament with some pretty tired legs.

It may have half the number of teams competing but Euro 2008 is twice as hard to win as the World Cup, according to Guus Hiddink and Franck Ribery. Both men point to the lack of authentic minnows in any group (especially Group C, where France have been drawn) and the short recovery-time available between matches.

One problem facing the coaches at such a tournament is the sheer number of games that their players have already started in a grueling campaign: Cristiano Ronaldo, for example, has played 48 games for Manchester United this season (the most recent, the dramatic Champions League final less than a week ago) and Andres Iniesta 49 for Barcelona.

There is no room for a bad start in this competition. France had time to draw their first two World Cup games against Switzerland and South Korea before kicking into gear, and they also started Euro 2004 slowly, playing poorly but doing enough to beat England before drawing with Croatia. They know that they won't be able get away with anything similar next week. "We
are aware that the first match will be crucial for the rest of the tournament and we have to hit the ground running," said Claude Makelele.

But they do have one thing in their favour, and that's the fresh legs factor. Because of the combination of lack of fitness and form (and in the case of Florent Malouda, a managerial change), over half their expected starting XI have played under 22 league games this season. That means that Gregory Coupet (18 matches), Willy Sagnol (9), Patrick Vieira (15), Lilian
Thuram (17), Claude Makelele (18) and Malouda (21) will start the tournament in good physical shape for a potential six games in 20 days.

"I have been on the bench a lot for Chelsea recently but maybe that's good before the Euro, as it¹s allowed me to rest a bit," said Nicolas Anelka, while Sagnol added, "My return to fitness has come just at the right time, and I will be mentally and physically raring to go when the Romania game kicks off."

Of course, France's opponents will be ready as well. But they will also be that bit less fresh which, when it comes down to the margins that determine major tournaments, could be crucial.

Compare the French players' statistics to their group opponents: there are only two players in the Italy side (Marco Materazzi and Mauro Camoranesi) that played fewer than 26 league games this season while there are four Dutchmen (Tim de Cler, Gio van Bronckhorst, Robin van Persie and Ruud van Nistelrooy) who played under 25 matches. From Romania, only centre-back Dorin Goian (20) has played fewer than 25 league matches this season.

How does this translate to the markets? Well, it shows the potential value in France's [3.2] price to top Group C, especially as they don't play [2.76]-priced Italy until the final game. ³We want to go into that game having already qualified from the group," admitted Makelele. France are [1.55] to reach the quarter-finals and because Group C is seen as the toughest, [2.4] to
reach the last four. Les Bleus are [9.8] to go on and win the final, a price that is bound to come in if they do get through the group, and therefore worth backing even if only to make a quick profit with a later lay.

"Everyone talks about Holland and even more about Italy but it would be a huge error to mess up the first game against Romania," warned Ribery. "We have to be ready from the off and we have the players to do that."

The irony of France's fresh-legs factor is that the three players who could turn out to be stars of the tournament ­ Ribery, Thierry Henry and Karim Benzema ­ have played more games than any of their team-mates this season.

That¹s even more reason for the other players to do all their running, and let the troublesome trio work their magic in the danger areas.

Tags: Claude makelele, Euro 2008 betting, football betting