Featured Articles / Ben Lyttleton / 11 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Ben Lyttleton looks at the merits of a 4-6-0 formation, asseses the chances of David Villa finishing as top scorer and tells us why he doesn't expect Cristiano Ronaldo to score as freely as he does for Man Utd.

Carlos Alberto Parreira, the Brazilian who coached his country to the 1994 World Cup after stunning the nation by picking two defensive midfielders declared at a coaching conference in 2003 that the system of the future was the 4-6-0. Anyone confused by that need only look at how Roma have played in the last two years under Luciano Spalletti and how Manchester United played last season ­ with no out-and-out forward ­ to see that Parreira was onto
something.

Of the teams playing in Euro 2008, fewer than half started their first games with two strikers in attack. As Croatia coach Slaven Bilic told Jonathan Wilson, the Betfair diarist, a regular on our daily Euro 2008 Marketwatch radio show and author of new book Inverting The Pyramid, a History of Tactics: "Systems are changing, it's all about the movement of players now."

The fact that the four early favourites for Euro 2008 all opted to play different attacking formations suggests that we are on the cusp of a tactical revolution ­ but which system will eventually win out? Germany, who are [4.8] to win the competition, started with two orthodox centre-forwards in Miroslav Klose and Mario Gomez, but it was Lukas Podolski, starting on
the left-wing, who cut in from wide to score their two goals against Poland

Podolski has come in from [30.0] to [6.0] for top-scorer, but there are goals throughout this Germany side: Klose looked off the pace but still had chances, and is still value at [24.0], while Gomez has drifted to [55.0] after his first game. Michael Ballack is now an even better price at [75.0] and bear in mind he had some sighters against Poland (Artur Boruc kept out
one goalbound effort) and takes penalties.

The lack of a proven international goal-getter has long been the reason that Portugal have failed to lift a trophy despite reaching three semi-finals, at least, in the last four international tournaments. The fact that their goals against Turkey came from centre-back Pepe and substitute Raul Meireles suggests the same problem remains ­ particularly as Nuno Gomes twice hit the woodwork, and Cristiano Ronaldo once. Portugal's threat clearly comes from
the flanks, but there seems absurd value in Nuno Gomes's top-scorer price of [95.0]. Ronaldo is the lowest-priced of those who did not score in the first match at [18.5], but a lay at [20.0] makes sense: he does not have the freedom he has in a United shirt and I expect more of Portugal's goals to come from deep runners from midfield.

Italy play a similar first-choice attacking trio to Portugal, with the difference that in Luca Toni, they have a front-man better suited to the role. Italian coach Roberto Donadoni has options from the bench: while Portugal have like-for-like replacements in wingers Nani and Ricardo
Quaresma, Donadoni can mix things up with Serie A's top scorer Alessandro del Piero [110.0] or wildcard (in more ways than one) Antonio Cassano.

All of the strikers in Italy's World Cup squad scored in their run to the final two years ago, but the burden of responsibility falls squarely on Toni's shoulders this time around. He was disappointing against Holland and has drifted to [50.0] to finish top-scorer, but given Italy's tough half of the draw, I think they might have to work harder for their results than
other teams. Betfair regular Dave Farrar is convinced that Cassano, priced at [280.0], is worth a look at in this market. He might be fun to watch ­ and he did top-score for Italy in Euro 2004 ­ but I can't see him offering you a return. Sorry Dave!

Spain were the pre-tournament second-favourites and strongly backed at [3.9] to reach the final. That price has now come in to [2.96] since they demolished Russia 4-1 thanks to a new game-plan that moved the ball quickly to strikers Fernando Torres and David Villa, who did the rest. Villa started the game at [18.0] to finish top-scorer and is now just [2.5]. He did score
two goals when Spain beat Ukraine 4-0 in their first World Cup game in 2006, and only scored one more after that. He might be worth a lay at [2.56] simply because Spain's half of the draw is much harder, and two more defensive teams, Sweden and Greece, await them.

At [2.66], Spain are now are the punters' pick to end Euro 2008 with the most goals. But this looks like over-excitement after their first game, and competition favourites Germany, who have drifted to [4.1], would be a better option. It's also worth remembering that the last time the Euro winners provided the outright top scorer as well was 20 years ago, when Holland were
inspired by Marco van Basten's five goals. And he didn't even start Holland's first game!

Tags: Cristiano Ronaldo, Euro 2008 betting, Euro 2008 topscorer, Podolski goals