Featured Articles / Ben Lyttleton / 29 May 2008 / Leave a comment

Ben Lyttleton looks at the so-called "Group of Death", Group C, where the Netherlands may come up short, goals will be at a premium and Romania may be outsiders worth backing to progress

Holland are used to being in the so-called Group of Death, and in the last two major international tournaments, the Dutch have qualified from their group only to lose to Portugal in the knock-out phase. At the 2006 World Cup, Holland beat the Ivory Coast and Serbia & Montenegro to qualify from Group C alongside Argentina, and in Euro 2004, came out of Group D with Czech Republic, knocking out Germany and Latvia.

Whether they will be able to manage the same in a group that contains the two World Cup finalists and Romania, the team that finished above them in their qualifying group, might not be so easy ­ they are [1.94] to get through Group C, a price that does not properly reflect the strength of their opponents.

I have been looking at some of the trends from Holland's previous groups and the obvious one from the World Cup was the number of goals there were. No group produced more goals than Group C, helped by Argentina smashing Serbia & Montenegro 6-0. The least-fancied team often takes a heavy beating at some point ­ in Euro 2004,Holland beat Latvia 3-0 in their opening game (in the same tournament, Sweden beat Bulgaria 5-0 and England beat Croatia 4-2).

But that's unlikely to happen again at Euro 2008 and it's no surprise to see Group C as the outsider on the betting for which group produces the most goals.

Romania are seen as the weakest team in the group but are certainly no whipping-boys, and that's why I see value in the lay at around 5.2 that Group C will not produce the most goals. Even though Romania coach Victor Piturca used to be a striker, and the team's most feted player is Adrian Mutu, the success of this side is built around a solid defence. This is a defence that did not concede a goal to Holland in twoqualifiers, and only let in more than one goal in a game once in qualifying in their first match against Bulgaria, when Martin Petrov hit two
unstoppable efforts from outside the area.

Goalkeeper Bogdan Lobont is coming into the tournament on the back of the best season of his career, while the back four is established, with alliterative full-backs Cosmin Contra and Razvan Rat supporting the midfield on either side of Gabriel Tamas and Dorin Goian, the match-winner against Holland, who is nicknamed Gulliver and has a habit of scoring important
goals.

But Piturca's master-stroke in this defensive set-up has been to take his Team's best defender, Cristian Chivu, and play him as a deep-lying midfielder sitting just in front of the back four. He is such a good passer and an important presence on the field that he can play anywhere, said
Piturca, who originally played him there to cover for the injured Mirel Radoi. Radoi is now fit again and joined Chivu in holding midfield for Romania's 3-0 friendly win over Russia in March. Against Holland, Piturca was not afraid to add a third defensive midfielder to the side to ensure the Dutch could not control of the game.

The games between France, Italy and Holland are unlikely to be high-scoring affairs ­ especially as France play Italy as the final match, with both teams surely hoping that they will already have qualified by then. But if you think that the floodgates will open against Romania, then I would think again.

As for Holland once again landing in the Group of Death, there is one pieceof good news for them: the only chance they have of playing Portugal, their bete-noires in previous years, is if they both reach the final. Even at a price of [30.0], I can't see that happening.

Tags: Chivu, Euro 2008 betting, Group of Death, Romnia Euro 2008