Euro 2008 Final: Spain v Germany / Dave Farrar / 29 June 2008 / Leave a comment

So, after thirty matches, after so many upsets, after last minute dramas and after a thrilling knockout stage, we're faced with a final between the two pre- tournament favourites.

It's strange how a competition which has defied so many footballing "givens" should be so ultimately predictable. Spain have had the smoother passage to the final, and have been the most consistent team at the tournament. In the past, Luis Aragones has failed to settle on his best eleven quickly enough, but in 2008 he has found a system and a solidity which has simply seen Spain continue their long unbeaten run right into Euro 2008.

I think that, with regard to team selection, Aragones has had another huge slice of luck ahead of the final. It sounds crazy to say that losing the tournament's top scorer going into the match is a bonus, but there were signs against Italy and for a half hour against Russia that Spain's front two of Torres and Villa were becoming a little too easy to read.

They rely so much on the service from midfield, that Germany would have fancied themselves to do what Italy did. Close down Xavi and Iniesta, and stop them finding the front two. The injury to Villa means that Cesc Fabregas is an almost certain starter, and he makes sure that there is an extra link between a talented midfield and a brilliant striker. This will pose plenty more problems for Germany.

It's tough on Villa to miss the final, and I'm a great admirer of his, but on this occasion, Spain are a better team without him. The probable presence of Fabregas gives them an edge in my view. As for Germany, they were on the easier side of the draw and yet they have got to the final the hard way. Jogi Low's team defy all of those German stereotypes, in that they seem unable to close games out, they love to attack and they struggle to defend effectively.

I don't think that we should read too much into their semi final against Turkey. They, like most of us watching, were genuinely surprised by Turkey's approach and it took them a while to react. This is a German team that seems to play better when the challenge is bigger.

They were able to see off Portugal after struggling against Croatia and Austria, and remember they managed to put a brilliant Argentina out of the last World Cup with a similar group of players. The potential injury to Michael Ballack is a worry, but the return of Torsten Frings will be a major boost, and Germany's forwards will worry the Spanish backline in a way that neither Russia nor Italy were able to.

I think that it's a 50-50 game, and that makes my value Match Odds bet easy to pick. Germany are too big a price to leave alone, and I'm backing them at [3.55] to raise their game one final time and give Jogi Low the major title that his coaching talent deserves.

Correct Score

The last major final to have more than 2.5 goals in normal time was in 1980, when Horst Hrubesch scored late on to beat Belgium. I fancy goals here though, and Germany will have to do it the hard way again. After their performances in the knockout rounds so far, I'm sorely tempted to put a 3-2 German win up at [38.0], but I'm going for Low's side to win 2-1 at a generous [18.0]

Half Time

It's really a case in this final of looking for all of the value that we can get. If you take Germany's quarter final against Portugal as a template for the challenge that they face here, then it's not outlandish to suggest that they could start brightly, catch Spain on the back foot, and grab an early lead. The common feeling surrounding the final is that it will be cagey and will start at a slow pace and so the value must be in opposing that view and either laying the 0-0 half time score at [2.6] or backing Germany to be in front at the break at an inviting [4.4].

First Goalscorer

The First Goalscorer value lies in the German ranks and Michael Ballack was going to be a confident selection in this market as I see him as a massive threat to Spain at set pieces, an area in which they haven't been properly tested. If you look at the goals that Spain have conceded at Euro 2008, two of them have come from set pieces and the other was because of their inability to defend a long crossfield pass.

Ballack gives you the added benefit of power from free kicks and [14.0] would be a great price if he plays. Wait for the team sheet and back him if he starts. If not, then take advantage of Per Mertesacker's decent scoring record. He'll be another set piece threat and is a massive price to grab the first goal at [80.0].

Corners

We've had a lot of fun, and a profitable time, with corners at this tournament, and those of you who listened to pre tournament advice are sitting on a lay of 310 corners or less. We need 9 corners in the final for that bet to come in and we have a good chance. Both of these teams have a higher than average corner count but the price reflects this and I'll be sitting and praying for 9 at least, but not getting involved again.

Tags: Euro 2008 bets, Euro 2008 odds, Michael Ballack