Euro 2008 Final: Spain v Germany / Matthew Walton / 28 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Matthew Walton takes you through the big money markets on a game that could break many of Betfair's football records. Spain v Germany is a truly titanic clash worthy of the biggest stage in Europe.

Quite obvious wasn't it. The two teams who contest the final are (a) the pre-tournament favourites and (b) the pre-tournament second favourites. If only everything was this simple!

That said, it hasn't been. At various points within this tournament both sides have endured a minor wobble. The Germans were beaten by Croatia in the group phases, they were the underdogs for their QF with Portugal and they were pushed all the way by the spirited Turks in their SF.

Spain left it late to beat Sweden in the group stages and had to endure the lottery of a penalty shoot-out to get past Italy in the QF's.

The road to Vienna hasn't necessarily been a straight one!

Never the less, what we shouldn't forget are the lessons we have learned about our betting throughout the course of these championships. And what's more, it's an education we haven't paid to receive. It's one which has been provided by the articles on this site and funded by your opponents on Betfair.

In short, by following our advice you should have been making money. And now we have one final chance to go out on a winner with the final.

Contrasting styles, conflicting statistics and differing odds. Once again these are all on offer and for one last time we'll plot our course through this minefield with one goal in mind ... profit!

As is our way, we study these matches from two perspectives. Firstly, we will highlight the 10 Year Trends of each side. Looking at their record in competitive matches over the past decade.

Secondly, we examine the more peculiar details of head-to-head form, previous tournament results and managerial records, better known as the Match Facts.

Together this analysis is used to forecast the outcome of matches and, having employed this strategy throughout the group phase, we have to say it's been pretty successful.

So, we will discuss the outright match result, the correct score market, first goalscorer and also the Over/Under 1.5 goals market and then armed with this information you'll be ready to get stuck into the Betfair markets. Let us begin ...

Germany v Spain - 10 Year Trends

These are all competitive matches since January 1998. No friendlies just World Cup qualifiers and finals plus Euro qualifiers and finals.

Germany - P68 W42 D17 L9 F125 A53, clean sheets 34/68 (50%)
Spain - P74 W49 D16 L9 F179 A52, clean sheets 36/74 (48%)

Germany provide a strong set of data - would we expect anything else? A 61% win rate and just a 13% loss rate. Goals per game at 1.83 is moderate but goals against at just 0.77 is good. Clean sheets at 50% is also near the top of the class.

Spain do all this - but better. Wins 66%, losses 12%. Goals scored is a whopping 2.41 goals/game and goals conceded just 0.70 per match. Clean sheets at 48% is perfectly acceptable. All round as strong a set of figures as we see from any side in this tournament.

Germany v Spain - Match Facts

In the head-to-heads it's Germany who tip the scales with a win record of 8-5 with a further 6 draws in their 19 encounters. No matches since 2003 though makes the data slightly hard to gauge but the last three matches of the sequence have seen a win for either side and a draw. Does that mean we're in for a close match?

Manager analysis. As we've said before, Joachim Low has taken a good German record and improved it under his charge. Wins improve to 74% under his reign, losses 11% and the team score at well over 2.00 goals/game. A high quality outfit.

Aragones is no less impressive. A 71% win rate with just a 7% loss rate. However, under his care the national side haven't been scoring quite as much - well until these championships!

Past experience of finals, Germany very good but Spain aren't too far behind.

Germany v Spain - Market Analysis

Outright result - no surprise to see our data at odds with the exchange. Spain [2.48] assume the mantle of favourites with Germany pushed out to [3.45]. The draw is [3.2].

Again, the advice has to be a lay of Spain in the 90 minute market given the figures we have to work with. Germany compete on every level, and win on most, which actually makes them the better option in 90 minutes, or the draw, but not a Spanish win.

Correct Score - the market leaders are Spain 1-0 or the 1-1 draw. Of the two, the 1-1 draw [7.8] has most appeal. We've seen it twice in their last ten meetings and although both sides win a high percentage they also lose very few, hence the draw fills the gap.

Alternatives would have to be 2-1 either way. Spain [13.0] and Germany [17.0] look decent prices for a result which has cropped up several times in past meetings, qualifying and already in these finals.

First Goalscorer - although the statistics don't say it, the hunch is for Germany to score first. Schweinsteiger has caught the eye of late but Podolski [10.0] has a slightly better record than Klose and is a bigger price. Spain will look to Torres as Villa is out but his value is debatable. The likes of Iniesta [22.0], for example, represent much better value.

Over/Under 1.5 goals - despite the absence of Villa and the tension of a major final there is no evidence to support anything other than the 'over' [1.46]. Four of their last five meetings have been this way and both sides here have been 'over' in four of their five games.

Conclusion

A great tournament will end with a great final. Great in so far as the statistics have pretty much led us here. These two sides share probably the best two combined records of any nations here and bear out our views as to long-term statistical analysis.

We've learned a lot during the past four weeks but one thing we must all remember, and we've seen it here time and again, is that every scrap of value we can find we need to hoover up. Every advantage we can gain over our rivals we must take. And every match we consider is one which can generate profit.

All roads end up at Vienna but the starting point is always on Betfair.

Tags: Euro 2008 Betting, Euro 2008 Final Betting, Football Betting, Germany, Spain