Euro 2008 Final: Spain v Germany / Editor / 28 June 2008 / Leave a comment

StatsonSport provide us with the rundown on the big game facts and figures. With both sides notoriously shaky at the back, should we expect to see goals at the Ernst Happel Stadion in Vienna tomorrow night?

HT

Germany - and before them, West Germany - have previously contested 12 major-tournament finals and they scored first-half in all of the first six (W3-D2-L1 at the break).

Since World Cup '98, Germany have a solid W10-D16-L4 half-time record in major tournaments. The Mannschaft's group-stage game with Croatia was the first time they had been behind at the interval since going down 1-0 to Portugal in the group stages of Euro '00 (W9-D11 to that point) and only the fourth time in that period they had conceded a first-half goal.

Last time out, they were 1-1 with Turkey going into the break. In knockout matches, the Germans are unbeaten at the break since falling behind to Croatia in the quarterfinals of World Cup '98. That said, they've scored themselves in only 4/12 first halves since the beginning of that tournament.

Spain are one match away from ridding themselves of the underachievers tag, but it remains that they are only W2-D8-L4 at half time in knockout matches. In general, the half-time draw has become less common since Luis Aragones took over as manager: five of La Furia Roja's last 15 competitive games outside Spain have been all-square at the break, but 3/5 at Euro '08 would have paid out on the draw, and the numbers suggest that's the most likely outcome here. However, there doesn't look to be much value in the [2.04] price.

HT/FT

If you think Spain can bring down the Germans in 90 minutes, there's not much to choose between the D/W and W/W - 6/13 of unified Germany's competitive defeats have been D/L. Under Aragones, Spain have been ahead by half time in 8/13 of their competitive wins on foreign soil, but when they've failed to grab a half-time lead, they've often struggled, winning 3/10, and losing 5/10.

The Spain W-W is the shortest double result [4.6], but Germany's record of first-half resilience (they've been behind in only 4/30 major tournament games in the last decade) makes us wary. Although Spain comfortably overcame Russia in their semi-final after being held until the interval, it was only the third time in 10 attempts that they'd successfully kicked on from a half-time draw to win a match.

If you're persuaded that Germany's tournament pedigree will see them home in 90 minutes, it's worth bearing in mind that they've often struggled for first-half goals in the last decade, scoring before the break in only 4/12 knockout matches. On the other hand, they've been ahead at the break in 10/17 tournament wins on neutral turf (2/4 at Euro '08).

There are no compelling patterns on either side, although it's worth noting that the last four major-tournament finals - going back to World Cup '94 - that have gone to extra time or penalties, have been level after 45 minutes as well.

Germany Clean Sheet

The Germans have shut out their opponents in just under half (16/33) of their competitive games outside Germany since 2000 and the figure is similar (14/30) in major-tournament matches since 1998. But at Euro '08 they've only managed clean sheets against Austria and Poland, two of the three weakest teams at the tournament, and have conceded twice in the three other games.

Spain have scored in 16/20 competitive away games since Aragones took the reins, 18/23 at major tournaments since 1998 and 10/14 knockout ties at major tournaments since 1984. Spain's good scoring record suggests they are well capable of finding a way through Germany's leak-prone defence, and [1.35] for Low's team not to keep a clean sheet is priced about right.

Spain Clean Sheet

Germany have found the back of the net in all five of their Euro '08 matches so far, scoring three times in each of their two previous knockout matches. Since the turn of the Millennium, they've scored in 27/33 competitive matches outside Spain, while at major tournaments since 1998, 24/30.

Luis Aragones has helped Spain to clean sheets in half of 20 competitive matches outside Spain (5/10 against teams ranked in the top 30). But, in the last decade, they've managed to shut out their opponents in only 6/22 games at major tournaments - and only 4/12 knockout ties at major tournaments since 1984.

Aragones has firmed up the Spanish backline to some extent, and they looked assured in shutting out Russia in the semi finals, but Germany's scoring record is formidable, and Spain not to keep a clean sheet, whilst longer, again offers little value at [1.53].

About the SOS Rankings

SOS consider FIFA's rankings unreliable, as they are based upon criteria clearly weighted to favour countries playing in weaker regional areas. SOS have therefore developed their own system of international football rankings, to give a more accurate guide of teams' relative strengths - and provide a more valid basis for their analysis.

The SOS rankings are based on a sample universe of more than 25,000 international matches, are updated every month, and attach a much greater weighting to both the relative importance of matches (friendly, competitive, major tournament) - as well as the relative strength of opposition and overall match supremacy. Allowance is also made for the game venue, not just in terms of simple home, away or neutral - but also in relation to the country's home continent. Points gained decay over a period of four years, the natural cycle of international football.

For the full SOS Rankings, here, where you can also view previews for all matches.

All analysis, unless where noted, is based on competitive internationals since the start of the 1998 World Cup Finals.

Tags: Euro 2008 Betting, Euro 2008 Final Betting, Football Betting, Germany, Spain