Euro 2008 Final: Spain v Germany / Dan Fitch / 28 June 2008 / Leave a comment

It's the final everyone expected, then no-one expected, then everyone expected again. Dan Fitch is fed up of bandwagons, but does he foresee goals?

The good thing about Spain is that they give England hope. The Spanish have suffered forty four years of hurt, compared to England's forty two and counting. All we have to do is to learn how to retain possession like Spain and not treat the ball as if it contains some kind of explosive device.

Spain's second half demolition of Russia was a joy to watch, as they passed the life out of their opponents. Now everyone is back on the Spanish bandwagon that they used to be on back in the group stages, before they jumped off to join the Dutch bandwagon, which they then ditched for the Russian bandwagon.

Yes, if this tournament has been characterised by anything, it's been bandwagon jumping. Any side that has shown the slightest inclination towards winning has been instantly installed as the favourites, until some other exotic looking side fluttered their eyelashes at us and we went weak at the knees for them. Really, we should all be ashamed of ourselves.

In the final, Spain meet the pre-tournament favourites Germany, who slipped down the pecking order after their loss to Croatia, won back their favourites tag after their win over Portugal, only to relinquish it again with their sloppy performance against Turkey.

With Turkey boasting a subs bench that looked like extras from Holby City, the Germans must be disappointed that they made such hard work of finishing them off. Still, such ineptitude made for an exciting match, made even more thrilling by the loss of the television feed.

When FIFA next meet to come up with some ridiculous new rules to improve what is already the world's most popular sport, they could do worse than consider having a period of every match when the TV feed is cut. It was a bit like when the lights go out in an Agatha Christie adaptation. When the pictures came back on, you half expected the referee to be lying on the pitch with a knife in his back.

Who knew that sleepy old Switzerland and Austria were hosts to such regular tropical storms? I don't think I recall seeing anyone with even an umbrella in those repeats of Heidi that always seemed to be on in the mornings of the school holidays.

Anyway, back to business. In a tournament that has seen most sides play with just one up front, the final features two teams that both started the tournament with a strike pairing. The Germans ditched their 4-4-2 formation when it was discovered that Mario Gomez was actually rubbish, but rumour has it that they revert back to type for the final, against a Spanish side that will start with a five man midfield following the injury to David Villa.

Torres is the perfect striker to play on his own up front and as the Spanish proved against Russia, the loss of Villa should have little bearing on their potency in front of goal. Overs backers should take heart from the fact that both semi finals broke the 2.5 goal mark. However, the last time that the final of a European Championships produced three goals or more, was back in 1980, as West Germany beat Belgium.

Recent World Cup finals also provide an argument for unders. Only one of the last five World Cup finals has broken 2.5 goals. But the German record in finals does bode well. Eight of their eleven appearances in the final of a major tournament, have resulted in over 2.5 goals. Spain haven't reached enough finals for it to be worth me looking up their record.

The last two clashes between Germany and Spain have both broken the 2.5 mark and both sides have seen the majority of their matches in their tournament produce overs. Spain go into the final with 80% of their matches having produced overs, whilst Germany can boast a healthy 60%.

Under 2.5 goals is the favourite at [1.7], with overs available at [2.4]. I'm going to stick my neck on the line and predict this match to buck the trend of recent finals and produce over 2.5 goals. Neither side are great at the back and hopefully the contrasting styles of the two sides will produce a humdinger finale, to what has been a very enjoyable tournament.

Tags: Euro 2008 Betting, Final Betting, Football Betting, Germany, Over/Under 2.5 Goals, Spain