Test previews / Andrew Hughes / 04 December 2008 /

There's rarely been a better time for South Africa to play Australia than now, says Andrew Hughes, so why does the market have them as big as [3.8]?

The ICC Test Championship ratings say it, so it must be true: South Africa has the second best cricket team in the world. In the next few days, this team will be landing at Perth airport. Their objective is clear: to be the best in the world. All they have to do is beat Australia. What could be more straightforward?

South Africa are a good team. Their span of success stretches back to last October and takes in victories in Pakistan and England, as well as a notable draw in India.

Why then are Graeme Smith's men as long as [3.8] to win down under? Indeed, why are an Australian team that appear to be in the middle of a difficult adjustment period as short as [1.7]? Those prices may reflect Australia's recent and commanding win over their hapless neighbours, New Zealand. But it probably has more to do with South Africa's lamentable record in this part of the world. Lest we forget, they have never won a series in Australia.

But whilst such a stark historical fact can be compelling to a cricket punter, the South African players won't be allowed to dwell on it. If the record is referred to at all in Micky Arthur's team meetings, it will no doubt be to accentuate the positive. Looked at through the lens of glass half-full, you could say that South Africa have a month to make history. And in that same spirit of optimism, this is how I think they can do it.

The cancellation of the Champions League is a bonus. It has enabled them to add a one day match against Western Australia to their three day warm-up match against the same opponents. They need as much time out in the middle as possible, because the First Test in Perth is vital, more important for South Africa than either of the other two Tests (in Melbourne and Sydney).

Sheer pace is the one advantage that the visitors have and the fast, bouncy WACA track gives them their best chance of taking 20 Australian wickets. Dale Steyn, Makhaya Ntini and Morne Morkel must hit the Aussies hard - literally, if required - displaying the kind of aggression with which England opened their Ashes challenge in 2005. And their batsmen must be bold, hitting through the line, being prepared to live by the sword. On a result pitch, the Proteas must gamble everything on victory.

The rewards for such a victory will be rich. Providing the South Africans can keep their mouths shut off the field, the Aussie press will begin to turn on Ricky Ponting once again. Old criticisms of his captaincy will be dusted off and given another airing. And we all know how much Punter likes to be criticised. More cracks may appear in the façade of Australian morale.

But next comes the hard part. Melbourne's drop-in pitch is a medium-paced pudding of a track and Sydney is similar, though more conducive to spin. Both wickets suit canny quicks with mastery of reverse swing and change of pace and of course, spinners. South Africa have no serious bowlers who answer either description. They may get lucky if the ball starts to keep low, but they can't count on it.

So this will be the time for the batsmen to earn their central contracts. As English fans saw this summer, Graeme Smith, Neil McKenzie, Hashim Amla, Jacques Kallis and Ashwell Prince can bat for hours at a time. They will need all of that obduracy and sheer concentration to keep out Brett Lee, Stuart Clark, Mitchell Johnson and the dangerous Jason Krejza.

Kallis will be the key figure in this batting mountain they have to climb. After a nightmare tour of England, he has been working on his technique with Duncan Fletcher and in the words of one of Fletcher's favourite phrases, Kallis needs to 'come to the party' (though he should probably stay away from the buffet). A century or even two as part of a historic series win would be the crowning glory of his career.

So there you have it. That is the way that South Africa can win down under. Though as we have found in the past, there are many more ways to lose.

The First Test starts on 17th December.

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