South Africa v Sri Lanka Test Match Bets: All over by day four

Test previews / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 14 December 2011 /

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The pose may not be too menacing but Dale Steyn's pace, Morne Morkel's extra bounce and Kallis' nagging line can create Sri Lanka a host of problems.

"Of course South Africa should win at [1.47] but you don’t need me telling you that. So it may be better to push the boat out a bit and back a Day 4 Afternoon finish at [9.2] and a Day 4 Evening finish at [7.4]."

The reasons why Sri Lanka will have an uphill struggle in this Series are well known and they will be playing against a South African team who will particularly relish the conditions at Centurion. This could well be all over by day four, says Jamie Pacheco.

Sri Lanka

The typical assessment of Sri Lanka's Test match credentials is beginning to sound like a broken record. 'Without Lasith Malinga they lack a world-class strike bowler.' 'Ajantha Mendis has not become the like-for-like replacement for Muttiah Muralitharan that many expected him to be.' 'All-rounders Angelo Matthews and Thisara Perera are more effective in short bursts in coloured clothing than in the longest format.' 'There's a huge amount of pressure on the experienced and battle-hardened top order.'

Ahead of this series in South Africa, the last factor is perhaps the most worrying. Malinga didn't play that many Tests before officially retiring; spinners rarely win Test matches in South Africa so theses aren't prime conditions for Mendis anyway; and Matthews and Perera may yet contribute with bat or ball sooner rather than later in whites. So it's the inconsistent form of Tillekeratne Dilshan and Mahela Jayawardene that's the real issue and swinging balls and 90mph bouncers are hardly the optimum conditions for them to get some runs under their belts and much-needed confidence. Over to you Kumar Sangakarra...

South Africa

There are question marks for different reasons over Ashwell Prince, Jacques Rudolph and Mark Boucher. A poor series here could mean the end of their Test careers with Boucher arguably the most vulnerable; AB De Villiers could easily take over with the gloves and bat at number five thus giving Graeme Smith a number of options to strengthen the balance of the side. On the plus side though, Vernon Philander looks a great asset with the new ball while Imran Tahir is the potential match-winner that Paul Harris never was.

All in all this is one of the better South African sides of recent years, not least because in Dale Steyn they have the world's top ranked Test bowler and in Jacques Kallis the number two ranked batsman and top-ranked all-rounder.

The Venue

There's no doubt Centurion is a result pitch. In training the wicket was green and at times the weather was overcast.

The stats back this up with 13 results from South Africa's last 16 matches here. 12 of those were wins for South Africa, the only defeat for the Proteas was the famous Test in 2000 against England that involved Hansie Cronje, charitable declarations and a certain leather jacket. The less said about it the better.

Match Odds

We can't make a case for Sri Lanka winning the Test ([8.0])because it's hard to see how they're going to take 20 wickets. It's hard to make a case for a draw (5.1) because it's difficult to see where a Sri Lankan centurion is going to come from in conditions that won't suit them but will make Steyn, Morkel and Philander salivate over more than Jacques Kallis at a wedding buffet. The variety of Tahir may also come into play.

Of course South Africa should win at [1.47] but you don't need me telling you that. So it may be better to push the boat out a bit and back a Day 4 Afternoon finish at [9.2] and a Day 4 Evening finish at [7.4].

Sri Lanka Top Batsman

It always takes a leap of faith to back a man coming in at fourth wicket down to top score. After all, there's a good chance that he may be left batting with the tail and therefore either stranded or in a position where he needs to take risks in order to add some late runs.

But Angelo Matthews may not need to score that many to win this market. A devastating opening spell by Steyn, Philander and Morkel could see Sri Lanka's top order all dismissed within a session for not too many runs next to each player's name and Matthews needing just 50 or so in easier conditions to come out on top. At [8.0] it's worth chancing.

Best Bet: Back Day 4 afternoon finish @ [9.2]

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