South Africa v Australia: Back the Aussies to win in the Bullring

Test previews / Andrew Hughes / 16 November 2011 /

" class="free_bet_btn" rel="external" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/G4/inline-freebet');" target="_blank">

Mitch is the key man for Australia

“The pace duel between the two sets of quicks will be fierce and the team whose batsmen stand up to it best will win the Test.”

Australia were humiliated in Cape Town, but Andrew Hughes believes their quick bowlers can help them bounce back at the Wanderers and draw the two-Test series.

South Africa v Australia, The Wanderers Stadium, November 17, 08:30 GMT (Live on Sky Sports 2)

Team News
South Africa will be unchanged, their only injury doubt ahead of the First Test had been whether A B De Villiers had fully recovered from his broken finger, but he didn't seem to have any problems at Newlands. Imran Tahir will retain his place ahead of Paul Harris and third seamer Vernon Philander did more than enough to keep Lonwabo Tsotsobe on the sidelines.

One change has already been forced on Australia. Shaun Marsh has a sore back and though David Warner has been drafted in as a replacement, it will be Usman Khawaja slotting in at three. We can also expect to see 18-year-old fast bowler Pat Cummins make his Test debut. Both Mitchell Johnson and Peter Siddle were poor in Cape Town, but Johnson offers more with the bat, so it will be Siddle who drops out.

Venue and Conditions
The Wanderers has a reputation as an intimidating arena for tourists, but the stats suggest otherwise, with South Africa losing five of their last 10 Tests at the stadium known as the Bullring. It is one of the few fast-bowling friendly venues left on the international circuit and batting there can be a bruising experience. You don't get many draws there, only one in the last 11 Tests, but it is worth noting that the weather forecast isn't great, with thunderstorms and showers predicted from Friday onwards.

Match Odds

It is hard to weigh up the effect on Australian morale of what happened in Cape Town. A recovery that had begun with a creditable series win in Sri Lanka was brought to a crushing halt in one session of madness. The good news for the Aussies is that the collapse was not, aside from Ricky Ponting's failing reflexes, down to technical problems. It was down to flawed thinking; pushing too hard to build on a big first innings lead and then allowing panic to set in as wickets tumbled.

They can put that right in Johannesburg, a venue where they were triumphant in 2009 thanks to Mitchell Johnson. He may be the most frustrating bowler in world cricket, but on hard pitches like Perth and The Wanderers, he can still be a match winner. The pace duel between the two sets of quicks will be fierce and the team whose batsmen stand up to it best will win the Test. Australia are nowhere near as bad as the scorecard from Cape Town made them look and I'll be backing them at [3.6] to bounce back in Johannesburg, odds that I think are an overreaction.

Top South African batsman

Jacques Kallis's record at The Wanderers is not great, by his standards and though AB De Villiers scored a century there against Australia two years ago, he only averages 24 there. It's best to side with the men in form and at bigger odds I prefer Graeme Smith over Hashim Amla. Biff scored a century in his last Test at this venue, looked back to his best in Cape Town and can be backed at [5.6]

Top Australian batsman

It would be asking a lot of the talented Khawaja to come into the team and top score, whilst Phil Hughes is unlikely to be allowed the same latitude he benefited from last time he was in South Africa and I have my doubts about Shane Watson's ability against top class fast bowling. This isn't really Michael Clarke's sort of pitch and with Ponting struggling, it's the other veteran, Michael Hussey who can be relied upon to top score at [5.9]

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>