Test previews / Ed Hawkins / 02 April 2012 /

Ed Hawkins, the Betting Writer of the Year, gives his exclusive verdict on the second Test between Sir Lanka and England, which starts on Tuesday

Sri Lanka
The home side have been forced into a minor reshuffle following their 75-run success in Galle. Out goes Chanaka Welegedara, the left-arm quick, who has a groin injury, and in comes Shaminda Eranga, a right-arm quick.

Eranga has played only one Test previously, against Australia, but claimed five wickets at 25 apiece. He may not play, however, as Angelo Mathews, the all-rounder, is included in the squad at the expense of Chamara Silva.

More likely than Mathews returning is a promotion for Dhammika Prasad, who will share the new ball with Suranga Lakmal.

England
Stuart Broad has flown home with a calf injury and his absence is a major blow as England try to level the series. It leaves England with a selection headache.

If England want to go like-for-like then Tim Bresnan is the most likely replacement because he has plenty of huff and puff and will not weaken the batting. Steven Finn would give them an extended tail, however, so there is talk that Monty Panesar could be dropped to make room for both men.

That would be typical of England's closeted thinking. Instead, Panesar should be retained and Samit Patel , who scored 11 runs and took two wickets on his Test debut, dropped. It would be the more attacking move for a side that must win. Don't hold your breath.

Pitch and conditions
Scorchio for each of the first three days in Colombo although thunderstorms are expected on day two. Still, the threat of violent cloud bursts was ever-present in Galle and they did not materialise.

The pitch at the P Sara Oval would appear to be equally as confusing. The average first-innings score in the last five Tests is 237. That doesn't tell the whole story, however, as last time out in 2010 Sri Lanka hit 425 against India. But Pakistan, in 2009, and Bangladesh, in 2007, were rolled over for 90 and 62 respectively. Seam and swing did the damage in those innings.

One would expect Sri Lanka to have asked for a road so as to ensure they are not usurped in this mini series. Whether the curator has had enough time since last week's early finish remains to be seen.

Match odds
Some numbers to consider...
66 - England wickets have fallen to spinners out of 80 from the four winter Tests

1 - Number of times England have scored more than 300 in eight innings in the UAE and Sri Lanka.

1 - Test victory in last 21 matches, not including Tests against Bangladesh, for England on the Asian sub-continent

5 - England batsmen who fell when playing the sweep shot in the first Test against Sri Lanka

12 - Runs scored by England's last five wickets in the second innings in Galle. It is their lowest aggregate in an innings for the last five wickets in Tests since 2000 when 14 runs were scored against India in Mohali in 2001.

So how on earth are England [2.98] to win this second Test with Sri Lanka [3.05] and the draw [2.90]?

Make no mistake this England side are petrified. They are not thinking for themselves - except Jonathan Trott who eschews the premeditated sweep - and they cannot block out their failings to spin in the UAE. Rangana Herath, the 12-wicket hero of the first Test, should not be bamboozling players on this stage.

Top Sri Lanka batsman
Kumar Sangakkara had a poor game in Galle but his record there had been shown to be poor. He has numbers to be proud of at this venue, however. He averages 97 in the last five years with 584 runs. Thilan Samaraweera has a mark of 94.

Top England batsman
One from Alastair Cook [4.1], Trott [4.4] and Ian Bell [6.2]. The rest of the England batsman are walking wickets with regard to spin. Bell has improved since the UAE and looks to be in decent nick.

Recommended Bet
K Sangakkara top Sri Lanka batsman at [4.2]

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