Test previews / Ed Hawkins / 02 November 2010 / 1

New Zealand were recently humbled 4-0 in their recent ODI series in Bangladesh whilst the all-conquering Indians have just dispatched Australia in both the Test and ODI series. Ed Hawkins goes in search of betting opportunities.

Team news

The bad news for a New Zealand team rocked by a heavy defeat to Bangladesh in a one-day series is that Gautam Gambhir, VVS Laxman and Ishant Sharma return from injury for the first Test of three. The good news, ahem, is that Daniel Vettori is confident "we have new players here who were not involved in Bangladesh".

That 4-0 humbling was not just a shock to the Kiwi psyche. It was to the punters, too. New Zealand have rarely troubled the top sides but they have tested them by playing tough, organised cricket. That they could barely manage that against Bangladesh is a worry to a team who have often been underrated on markets.

Certainly Mark Greatbach, the Kiwi coach, is concerned. Incredibly, he would appear to be happy with a 1-0 defeat if his pre-series comments are to be taken at face value. "India have only lost one of their last 13 Tests in India, so if you're gonna ask me what a good result is, I would take two draws."

Much will depend on Vettori, batsman Ross Taylor and pace bowler Chris Martin if they are to be competitive. Tim Southee, the all-rounder, remains a work in progress while Brendon McCullum's reputation as a one-day specialist continues to fool many.
In the last two years McCullum, who loves to cultivate his 'reckless' persona in the shorter format, is a far better five-day player. He averages 42 over the last two years with three tons, one against India.

Venue and conditions

Here are the five first-innings totals in Tests at Ahmedabad since 2000: 407, 500, 398, 76 and 426. You'll spot the odd one out. That was when India was destroyed by the South Africa pace attack in 2008.

It will give the Kiwi pacemen hope but it would appear to be a forlorn one. This is the venue where Sri Lanka amassed 760-7 and history dictates that we must consider that two years ago it was a major blip.

Match odds

It is India versus the draw according to the match odds market. The hosts are [1.41] with the stalemate [4.10] and New Zealand almost an irrelevant [14.00].

So we must consider what will happen to the two shortest prices. The draw price is peculiar in that if a side is finding batting easy in the first innings it will shorten, despite one team clearly manoeuvring itself into a winning position.

This trend is challenged when we have one team which is clearly superior to the other - do not forget that India are the No 1-rated side in the world and the Kiwis are eighth, one place above Bangladesh.

Will the stalemate really shorten if India are only one down at lunch with smoke coming off the scoreboard? Probably. But it will not shorten as quickly if New Zealand bat first and are able to make serene progress. That will cause panic and a plunge.

So our best option in an uncompetitive heat is to consider a back-to-lay of the draw, hoping that Ahmedabad's wicket is as good as it has been in the past.

Of course, backing New Zealand at those big odds with a view to trade is a nice idea, but the reality is a harsh one. They will double very quickly indeed if India were to get up a head of steam by batting first and it would take something special to bring their odds down.

Top batsman

We can't advise a wager on first-innings joint jolly Virender Sehwag, who averages a piffling 19 in five Tests on this ground. Gambhir, who is [5.00], averages 41 while Sachin Tendulkar has a mark of 48. He is [4.50]. The top-rated man in terms of average (60.54) is Rahul Dravid and he goes off at [5.00].

We have no form to go on for the Kiwis in India. Only Vettori has played Tests there. He does average 108, though in two Tests. He is [4.00] under "any other batsman". Not the greatest price in the world.

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

(1)

1. Shekhar | 06 November 2010

   World never friend

:

:

:

?

: