Sri Lanka Cricket / Ed Hawkins / 22 March 2012 /

Ed Hawkins, the SJA Betting Writer of the Year for the second year in a row, previews the start of the two-Test series

There was a clue to how the two-Test series between Sri Lanka and England could pan out on the first day of the warm-up match against the Sri Lanka Development XI: it was a miserable grind for the bowlers. The hosts amassed 376 for five and England sweated...a lot.

This is not unusual for the Asian sub-continent but we could be forgiven for allowing it to slip our minds after England were whitewashed in the UAE against Pakistan when both batting sides were afraid of the sun on their backs.

To that end it is a culture shock for England. They must get used to it if they are to justify series favouritism at [2.54]. Sri Lanka are [3.40] and the draw is [2.96].
Sri Lanka are tough to beat on their own turf, chiefly because it is very, very hard to consistently get out cheaply the limpet-like duo of Mahela Jayawardene and Kumar Sangakkara. The pair have scored more than 4,600 runs between them in the last five years. And don't forget Thilan Samaraweera and Tillakaratne Dilshan, who average 65 and 44 respctively over the same period.

That is the challenge for England: to take wickets regularly. The threat of spin is there, too. Suraj Randiv is an emerging off-spinner while Rangana Herath could be the Saeed Ajmal of this series. The wily slow left-armer, 34, has plenty of variations and has 42 wickets in his last 11 Tests.

But England shouldn't fret, too much. Herath aside Sri Lanka's bowling is weak and if England struggle on flat surfaces then sure as hell the hosts will. There is no Lasith Malinga remember these days in the five-day format.

Indeed, Sri Lanka have won only once in the last 12 months (11 Tests) and following a winning series streak at home from 2006 to 2009 when they won six straight, they have not won in their last three.

Therefore, the most sensible wager, bearing in mind the ludicrously short nature of the series, is to keep the draw on our side and lay the hosts at [3.60]

It is difficult to have much faith in any of England's batsman in the Asian sub-continent after their poor performance in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Not one of them averaged more than 38. The best performer was Matt Prior, with a mark of 37.50 while the usually reliable Alastair Cook could only manage 26.50 and Jonathan Trott, normally durable, posted 26.50. Kevin Pietersen and Ian Bell were the worst of the lot, averaging 11.16 and 8.50 respectively.

One cannot write off Cook, however, to finish as England's highest runscorer. His record in Asia is far too good for that. In the last four years he averages 47.84 there, the best of any current England batsman. Next best is Pietersen with 38.83.

Pietersen is an odd case because he had looked woefully out of form for so long, including the Test series against Pakistan, but suddenly discovered his mojo in the one-day series that followed when he hit back-to-back centuries. He gets the mod ahead of Cook, who is skinny at [3.55], for having the superior price of [4.10]. As for Andrew Strauss, he appears to be in decline and his average over the last year has dipped to its lowest point in his career.

Pietersen is undoubtedly a risk and another could be Monty Panesar for top England bowler. We want to back Monty but are just not sure whether he is going to play in both matches, with Samit Patel being preferred in the final muscle-loosener in tandem with Graeme Swann.

Spin is crucial for visiting sides on the island and in the last ten years, six of the top ten wicket-takers have been twirlers, Harbhajan Singh leading the way with 18 victims. Panesar is eleventh on that list.

Swann, of course, has not played a Test in Sri Lanka before. So why not back him at [3.85] then? Well, Panesar, who is [4.10], is outbowling him and there is a feeling that the England camp are getting a little weary of his relish for a headline, Andy Flower was forced to tell him to button his lip only recently.

Stuart Broad might have a say in this market and at [4.30] could be the call but keep an eye on his fitness as the first Test approaches. Broad is a bowler who can take wickets with old or new ball and will look forward to the hard work.

Recommended bets

Lay Sri Lanka to win series @ [3.6]

Back Kevin Pietersen for top England series runscorer @ [4.5]

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