Sri Lanka Cricket / Editor / 10 April 2007 /

New Zealand v Sri Lanka - PREVIEW

Two teams with a foot in the semi-finals of the 2007 Cricket World Cup will meet at the National Cricket Stadium in Grenada, with the prize on offer for both New Zealand and Sri Lanka an early case of bragging rights for the rest of the tournament.

New Zealand and Sri Lanka have been two of the most impressive sides on show in the Caribbean, with the Kiwis still unbeaten after overcoming the odd scare against plucky Ireland on Easter Monday and Sri Lanka's sole loss having come by just one wicket against the world's leading one-day side South Africa.

So this game shapes us as one of the classic encounters of the event so far, much like England's game with Sri Lanka turned out, although Michael Vaughan's side more than once let their opponents off the hook, something that could come back to haunt them at the end of the Super 8 phase on April 21.

It seems that Betfair punters have been equally impressed with both sides, although Sri Lanka are slightly favoured at 5.4 to New Zealand on 5.6 in the outright market - New Zealand on the other hand are 1.03 to make the semi-finals and Sri Lanka on 1.06, although it would take a strange sequence of results to see either miss out, the same applying to double reigning champions Australia.

And you would have every reason to be impressed by both of these sides, which should make this match very evenly-contested and interesting for the future of the tournament, as there is every chance that they will meet again later in the tournament - should they finish in second and third place, as seems fairly likely, they would play again in the semi-finals.

It has been fairly clear since the tournament started that both teams are well-rounded and have no obvious weakness, and the closeness of the duo is borne out in no uncertain terms in the match odds market, where New Zealand are shading favouritism at 1.96 to Sri Lanka's 1.98.

The Kiwis have won all six of their games so far, and most of them in very impressive fashion, thanks to a mixture of some massive innings and restricting opponents to manageable totals when they have been asked to chase a target, but there is a chance that some people are over-estimating the performances based on the results rather than the opposition.

New Zealand now go into their final three games on top of the Super 8 table courtesy of their superior net run rate, but it is clearly worth looking ahead before anointing them as certain semi-finalists, considering their final three games come against the other three sides that currently occupy the top four spots alongside them; Sri Lanka in this game followed by South Africa and finally Australia - a tough game indeed if they do need points from the final game.

The big unknown factor in the game is the pitch, as this will be the second game Grenada has hosted in the tournament. The first game takes place on Tuesday so it will be well worth a look at the way the South Africa v West Indies clash was played out. Expectations are that pace will be less effective with a slow and low bounce more likely and conditions potentially aiding swing bowling, which both sides possess.

But it is also distinctly possible that the pitch will turn and bring the likes of Muttiah Muralitharan and Daniel Vettori into play in the leading wicket-taker markets. The last major game played at the venue, and even that was before a total redevelopment over the last three years, came in 2004 and the leading wicket-taker in all games there was Chris Gayle, a slow right-arm spinner.

Vettori came to the fore in the win over Ireland on Monday, when he took 4-23 to ensure that any chance of them reaching a testing 264-run target was extinguished nice and early. He now has 12 wickets in the tournament and seems to be peaking at just the right time, joining an attack full of options.

The Kiwis have five bowlers averaging less than 21 runs per wicket (Vettori is actually worst of them at 20.91) and they have a lovely mixture of styles, right the way up from the bespectacled left-arm spinner to Shane Bond, on his day now the fastest bowler in world cricket. Bond has taken 10 wickets in his five games at an amazing average of only 10.20 and his economy rate of 2.44 runs per over is best in the tournament by a long way.

Add to the mix the medium pace (so well served so far in the event) of Jacob Oram and Scott Styris, plus Jeetan Patel if they use a second spinner, and you can see why so many people have taken them as their bet to lift the trophy.

Styris and Oram are also key members of a batting line-up that has twice passed the 300-mark, as well as chasing down two mediocre targets in double quick time. Although Styris has not scored as many runs as captain Stephen Fleming so far, he has played the more important innings, especially in the opening win over England that kick-started their tournament in such fine style.

But they did show signs against Ireland that they could be vulnerable, with only Brendon McCullum and James Franklin rescuing them from a nasty position at 189-7 when Ireland were well in the game.

Sri Lanka are just the sort of side that could take advantage of such weakness, although they themselves would have to show a bit more consistency than they did against England, when they were rescued by their bowlers and almost came a cropper to a fine stand by Paul Nixon and Ravi Bopara for the eighth wicket.

They have also been extremely strong with the ball in hand, and adding in their quartet of in-form bowlers, there has to be a decent chance of a low-scoring game - worth looking at quotes in the total runs market especially if Tuesday's game makes it obvious that runs are going to be hard to come by in Grenada.

Lasith Malinga has been the undoubted star for Sri Lanka so far and he remains 3.25 favourite in the top wicket-taker market despite Glenn McGrath (3.65) closing in on him and equalling his 15 wicket-haul with three in each of his last three games. Vettori is also as low as 14.5 after his four wickets on Monday.

Muralitharan, Chaminda Vaas, Farveez Maharoof and Dilhara Fernando (one from the latter two should figure) have also impressed in spells and most of them have the skills either to be able to extract some reverse swing, or in Murali's case vicious spin, out of any pitch.

The game could well come down to which line-up best cope with conditions and Sri Lanka can certainly have one of the most feared top orders in the game, where veteran opener Sanath Jayasuriya continues to impress. He has scored over 300 runs in the tournament already, and with six other Sri Lankans having scored a century already, they have plenty of options in case he and Kumar Sangakkara fail to trouble the scorers.

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