Sri Lanka Cricket / Ed Hawkins / 23 March 2012 /

Ed Hawkins, the Betting Writer of the Year for the second year in succession, has all the stats and analysis ahead of the match, which starts on Monday

Starts Monday: 05.30
Live on Sky Sports 1

Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka have been dealt a blow with the loss of Angelo Mathews, the allrounder, to a calf muscle injury. The 24-year-old may in the future only play as a batsman because of persistent injuries brought on through bowling.

His place is expected to go to Chamara Silva, who hammered the England attack in the previous warm-up match. Silva has been in terrific form in the domestic season and was the only batsman to pass 1,000 runs.

Thilan Samaraweera has been named as vice-captain to Mahela Jayawardene. Sri Lanka should field two spinners in the shape of Rangana Herath and Suraj Randiv.

England
There has been much speculation over Ian Bell's position in the team after he endured a horrible start to the tour. He has 25 runs in three innings. Samit Patel is putting Bell under pressure after a 78-ball 72 in the victory over the Development XI.

Ravi Bopara, who has replaced Eoin Morgan, is certain to play. But where he will bat depends on Bell. If Bell plays Bopara will bat at No 6.

It would be nice to see Monty Panesar and Graeme Swann play together and if they do it will greatly improve their chances of taking 20 wickets. They may look to be more solid, however, and focus on avoiding defeat first up following the whitewash against Pakistan.

Pitch and conditions
You may have read about the oppressive heat in Sri Lanka. Kevin Pietersen has called it "a joke" and a "nightmare". On days one and two the mercury should rise to no more than 33C but it is the humidity which is the worry for England, who will be at a disadvantage.

They will hope that a cooling sea breeze rolls in from the Indian ocean at the picturesque Galle stadium because it is expected to be a struggle for the fielding side. Runs are in the offing.

The groundsman has guaranteed the game will go five days and ruled out anything more than slow turn. He was confident that the team batting first would score more than 400.

There is a reason for such confident predictions. Last year the curator was heavily criticised for producing a bowler-friendly surface which hurried the hosts to defeat against Australia. He is anxious not to make the same mistake.

Match odds
Sri Lanka are [3.55] for victory, England are [2.82] and the draw is [2.68]. It has to be said that the stalemate is tempting indeed, a rarity for this column.

With the heat and humidity impacting the energy levels, the flat nature of the pitch and the overriding sense that these are two teams who will both struggle to take 20 wickets, it looks a fine price. At the very least we will be able to trade as it could well dip below the even money mark by the end of the first session if only one wicket has fallen.

Top Sri Lanka batsman
Take your pick. This column would not put you off backing any from Jayawardene (average 68.7 on this ground in the last five years), Tillakaratne Dilshan (50) or Samaraweera (46.8). They should be available at [4.50], [5.00] and [7.00] respectively. Kumar Sangakkara, the favourite at around [4.00], has a poor record under the same terms, posting 33.

Top England batsman
Jonathan Trott and Andrew Strauss both scored centuries in the final warm-up match and will no doubt attract interest. Trott is likely to go off around [5.00] and Strauss the same odds. We ruled both out in our series preview and it is tough to look past Alastair Cook, who is made for such conditions because he doesn't feel the heat. Pietersen does and it was a little worrying he said he found it "difficult to concentrate".

Recommended bet
Back team batting first for 400 or more at around [2.00]

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