ODI Series Betting Pakistan v England: Horrible history for tourists

Pakistan v England / Ed Hawkins / 10 February 2012 /

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Can Morgan give England reason to celebrate in the ODIs?

"Since December 12, 2005, England have won just 12 of 38 ODIs in Asia and four of those victories came against Bangladesh and the Netherlands. Pakistan have won 12 of their last 13 matches"

Ed Hawkins says the formguide will weigh heavily against England in the four-match series, which starts in Abu Dhabi on Monday

Education, education and education. England have gone back to basics with their one-day side recently; favouring young, hungry talent as they look to build an astute group in time for the next World Cup. When the four-match one-day series with Pakistan starts in Abu Dhabi on Monday we will know a little more about how smart they are.

The whitewash much of this group suffered in India was a steep learning curve. They will face similar challenges against Pakistan, namely trial by Saeed Ajmal and working out the vagaries of slow, low pitches. England are the dog bet of the three results, priced at [3.80].

They are a poor bet, largely because of the personnel they have at their disposal. Jonny Bairstow, Danny Briggs, Jade Dernbach and Jos Buttler are the youngsters expected to prove their worth. Otherwise it looks as though they can only rely on Alastair Cook and Jonathan Trott for runs. The bowling looks pretty good, though. Stuart Broad, Graeme Swann and the returning Tim Bresnan can make an impact.

Despite that strength, England's one-day history make Pakistan at [2.24] and the draw at [3.25] more appealing options for backers. They are a Jekyll and Hyde team: good at home, poor away. In 2011 they won home series against India, the World Cup winners, and Sri Lanka, the runners-up. Then they lost five-zip in India, contributing to a sequence of 14 defeats in their last 20 outside of England.

Their record in Asia also makes grim reading. Since December 12, 2005, England have won just 12 of 38 ODIs in Asia and four of those victories came against Bangladesh and the Netherlands. Pakistan have won 12 of their last 13 matches.

In what smacks of desperation, England look likely to hand opening duties to Kevin Pietersen with Craig Kieswetter dropping to No 5. It is a crazy call for Kieswetter, who has no idea of such a crucial role. England's management don't appear to have a Scooby, either.

Pietersen obviously has to be a contender for top bat because of his promotion. He will go off at around [4.50]. Trott, however, is the value. KP has not made a score of 80 or more since November 2008 in this format while Trott averages 56 in Asia in the last two years.

Eoin Morgan has the best record of any English player in these conditions and he is probably the most experienced, too given his time in the IPL. Normally we are his champion but he looked dreadfully out of sorts in the Test series and seems to have lost the knack of playing spin. As ever, though, he is overpriced and could go off at around [6.50].

Pakistan have picked a squad with whom you may be more familiar. Shoaib Malik, Shahid Afridi and Wahab Riaz all make the cut. In terms of run-getting, their top man in the last two years in Asia is Umar Akmal. He could be as big as [7.00] and represents value.

The series correct score market has a 2-2 draw favourite at [3.15] with Pakistan [3.45] for a 3-1 win and England [5.30] to win by the same scoreline. Instead of backing either side to win on the outright, these are the two prices you should take depending on your allegiance. The smart money, though, may be a lay of England.

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