ODI preview / Ed Hawkins / 02 July 2011 /

Ed Hawkins is still unable to fathom why Sri Lanka are outsiders for the third one-day international at Lord's on Sunday

England
Following their beating at Headingley, England may consider picking a more balanced unit. That means Jade Dernbach's spot must come under scrutiny.

He went at seven an over and although he was not much better than anyone else, the hosts could pick Chris Woakes or Samit Patel for the fourth bowling slot and at a stroke strengthen their batting.

Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka's greatest weakness is their middle-order batting. However last time out it proved to be a strength with Angelo Mathews coming in at No 5 and smashing 46 off 30 balls. England need to find a way of removing consistently the top three cheaply. After Mathews at No 5 the tourists are largely untested.

Venue and conditions
We have already seen in the Test match between the sides that the Lord's wicket is one that batsmen can trust. In ODIs in the last few years it has not been full of runs, however. The average first-innings score in the last 10 is 230 and no side has posted more than 277.

England have a poor record at HQ. They have lost their last four and in the last 10 years they have lost 12 of 18 games played. That includes Sri Lanka's 20-run win in 2006 when Lasith Malinga took three wickets.

The weather forecast is good with no rain expected.

Match odds
If all is fair in love and war, Sri Lanka are the better side. The sticking point comes when we come across variable, or alien, conditions. England's victory under lights at The Oval with a swinging white ball the perfect example.

We do not expect England to be given a helping hand this time so with Sri Lanka again priced as outsiders at [2.20] we have to side with them. England rate poor value at [1.79].

If Sri Lanka do manage to take a 2-1 lead in this match it is the last time we expect to see such odds with the flip flop in position for the following two matches.

Top England batsman
Eoin Morgan, top scorer in Leeds with a half-century, could well enjoy favourite status at around the [4.00] mark. Morgan has a poor average of just 16 at HQ. Craig Kieswetter and Alastair Cook (average 26), who surprisingly managed a strike rate of plus 90, could be slightly bigger.

Top Sri Lanka batsman
The returned Tillakaratne Dilshan smashed 193 on this ground in the Test match earlier this summer and he will vie for favouritism with Mahela Jayawardene, who hit a brilliant 144 in Leeds. Kumar Sangakkara is a live runner, too and there seems little point looking past a stellar top three.

Best bet: Sri Lanka [2.20]

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