ODI preview / Ed Hawkins / 17 June 2010 /

A five-match 50-over series might not be the most headline-grabbing sporting event this summer, but bettors should only be concerned about the potential value on offer in a close contest, says Ed Hawkins

A cynic might suggest that a five-match one-day series between England and Australia scheduled outside of an Ashes series was a desperate attempt to grab the attention of a football-obsessed public. They might just tune in, though because at least this contest will not be dominated by whining about a bending ball.

With three matches to be played under lights, the white ball had the potential to make as much impact as the infamous Jabulani in South Africa, particularly with the first two being played on the coast at Southampton - venue for game one on Tuesday - and Cardiff.

It is something of a surprise then that when perusing series prices of [2.56] England, [1.68] Australia and [11.00] the draw, rational fears over the foibles of the ball under lights and a coastal atmosphere can be allayed. The four international matches at the Rose Bowl have seen an even toss split while all four matches played this summer at Cardiff have been won by the chasers.

That may increase, or decrease, confidence in backing England, depending on your view as to whether the home side need assistance from the conditions. What should be clear, however, is that the gulf in ability between the sides as suggested by the prices is about as trustworthy as a Jabulani flight path.

Admittedly England have a plane crash of a record against Australia. In two-team series they have beaten them only twice since 1981 (eight series), a nadir apparently coming as recently as last summer when Australia cruised to a 6-1 victory. Do we trust such a result, though, coming as it did post-Ashes euphoria?

Probably not. More pertinent are England series wins in Sri Lanka and South Africa, which came two years apart. Had it not been for the World Twenty20 triumph, England could rightly be classed as an emerging one-day unit. As it is, they have to respected as a side that has 'made it'. What is key about each of those three examples is that England were virtually written off in them, as they are here.

Of course, England trounced Australia in the final of the World Twenty20 in the Caribbean and it was another pointer that Australia are far from the fearsome side of old. Without gun players like Mitchell Johnson and Brad Haddin for this series, man for man there is little to choose between the squads.

James Anderson and Stuart Broad provide a sneaking suspicion that it is the hosts who are better with the ball. And that is confirmed when you consider that Graeme Swann, the world's best finger spinner, goes up against Nathan Hauritz. Australia will rely on Doug Bollinger and Ryan Harris as their seamers. Bollinger, as resurgent as he has been in the last 12 months, was dreadful in English conditions with a stint for Worcestershire in 2007.

There is little doubt that if England, who will be led by the returning Andrew Strauss, are going to end their miserable run against the old enemy, they must out perform them in the field. In Ricky Ponting and Shane Watson, Australia have the top four ODI batsmen in the world over the last 12 months. Ponting has 1,372 runs and Watson 1,242. Cameron White and Mike Hussey next up.

England have no batsman in the top 20, although that is a slightly misleading stat. Paul Collingwood, in at No 21, has 642 runs but from 16 games less than Ponting. Eoin Morgan, their second best ranked batsman, has 542 runs in 16.

On such featherbed surfaces as The Oval and Lord's, one cannot help but think that Australia awesome foursome will take a liking to the military medium of a Tim Bresnan or Luke Wright. Still, Southampton , Cardiff and Old Trafford offer a fairer battle between battle and ball. Perhaps it might help England if the ball moves around a bit, too.

Ed Hawkins says: back England at [2.56]

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: