ODI preview / Ed Hawkins / 14 January 2011 /

Ed Hawkins looks at the betting options ahead of the 50-over marathon, which starts in Melbourne on Sunday

Given the general malaise and gloom which surrounds Australia cricket at the moment - humiliated in the Ashes and shown up short in the Twenty20 matches - it is unlikely to surprise that they have lost their last three two-team one-day series (against Sri Lanka, India and England).

What might surprise is that after a Test series victory and an impressive showing in the Twenty20 is that for the first time on the three-month tour, the Betfair outright market is correct. Finally, the betting fraternity has woken up to the fact that England have the better cricketers . They are [1.87] to win the seven-match (yes, SEVEN, in the style of the BBC's vidi printer) series with Australia [2.28].

Yet whereas before we would confidently trumpet England's cause ahead of the first game in Melbourne on Sunday morning, this time we have to be more cautious. There are two factors which need to be considered: the weather forecast and fatigue.

If you have been living down a manhole for the past few days you will be unaware that Australia has suffered some unseasonal rainfall to say the least. With storms continuing, and with the series not scheduled to end until the end of the first week of next month, it would be foolish not to recognise the possibility of a washout in at least one game.

This opens up the possibility of a draw at [14.00]. It also means we should be careful when perusing the series correct score bets. The odd one out in seven, either 4-3 to England or to Australia, at [4.30] and [4.70] respectively, would ordinarily be considered worthy wagers. But what about 4-2 England at prices ranging from [11.00] to [14.00]?

A 4-2 Australia victory is priced at [23.00] and given the form and lack of confidence of Michael Clarke's team, England would have to suffer badly indeed from that second factor. There can be no doubt that toward the end of the campaign minds and bodies will be weary, especially with the looming World Cup becoming a distraction.

Under the stewardship of Andy Flower, England's supporters claim that they have done away with a previous bad habit of finishing the one-day leg of a tour in sloppy fashion but at the very least we should expect England to start to slow down as the finish line approaches. Last summer against Pakistan they were cruising at 2-0 but then let the tourists back into it before claiming a decider at The Oval. And after taking a 3-0 lead against Australia the year before, the final score was 3-2 as England switched off completely.

Another negative about England is that they are without their two best bowlers. James Anderson will miss the first three matches and Stuart Broad is absent injured. Between them they have taken 114 wickets in the last two years. It gives Australia an edge with the ball as they can field each of their top four bowlers (Mitchell Johnson, Nathan Hauritz, Shane Watson and Doug Bollinger).

That is an important positive for the hosts for they must come up with ways to handle England's three batting stars. Ian Belll is in fantastic form, Kevin Pietersen is perennially dangerous and Eoin Morgan is probably the best one-day batsman in the world. It could be a close run thing overall.

Recommended bets: England to win 4-3 at [4.30]

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