ODI Betting: West Indies v South Africa

ODI preview / Ed Hawkins / 20 May 2010 /

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AB De Villiers is South Africa's most reliable batter in terms of runs scored per innings

"The omens do not look good for the hosts and it is a struggle to make a case for them"

The Proteas have inflicted two defeats on the hosts in the Twenty20 internationals at North Sound. Can they continue such a rich vein of form on Saturday in the first of five 50-over games? Ed Hawkins finds out

Team news
South Africa, typically the most unreliable one-day outfit on the planet when the pressure is on, beat West Indies in the two Twenty20 internationals. It was too little too late given the World Twenty20 finished nearly a week ago but it served as a reminder as to how good they can be when it doesn't really matter.

The tourists were so cocksure that they shuffled their pack over the two games. Providing they do not suffer a selection meltdown again, they have uncovered their aces in the pack for this five-game 50-over series.

Jacques Kallis returns after missing Thursday's one-run victory over West Indies at North Sound. Ryan McLaren, with five wickets over the two games, looks to be a certain starter while Morne Morkel, Johan Botha and Dale Steyn should complete the bowling line-up. David Miller should pip Alviro Petersen for the final batting slot to make his ODI debut. AB De Villiers could keep wicket at the expense of Mark Boucher.

West Indies must decide whether to persist with Andre Fletcher as wicketkeeper instead of Denesh Ramdin. Fletcher got a duck in the second T20 game and given Ramdin's flexibility with the gloves and steel with the bat, it is not difficult to work out who punters would rather see in the XI.

Venue and conditions
The Sir Viv Richards stadium at North Sound is a soulless metal shack on Antiguan wasteland and the wicket matches the ground's character. It is bland and lifeless as first-innings scores of 136 and 120 in the T20 matches also suggest.

There have been only six ODIs played there. Four have been won by the side chasing, which hints at a toss bias although we would like a greater study period. The first-innings average in five games (Australia's contest against Bangladesh in 2007 was reduced to 22 overs) is 231. That is low in this day of a heavy bats and heavier hitters.

A quirk is the fact that in the six games there have been four centuries and six half-centuries. That rather puts the kybosh on a highest individual score wager of under 82.5 runs.

Match odds
South Africa are as short as [1.42] to win the first ODI at North Sound with West Indies at [2.38]. The omens do not look good for the hosts and it is a struggle to make a case for them.

They have lost 11 of their last 12 against South Africa, have lost their previous 11 against opposition other than Zimbabwe, Canada and Ireland and in two outings at North Sound they have failed to win. Pretty dismal.

Featured market
Here are some numbers: 1, 44, 0, 11 and 0. Those are the West Inides' last five opening partnerships against top echelon opposition. South Africa will be around [1.60] for the highest opening partnership while we can also consider a lay of first-wicket runs in increments of 10.

Top batsman
Chris Gayle top scored for West Indies in their last match at North Sound but otherwise there is no ground form to go on. Gayle will be favourite for a repeat at sub [4.00] and if you back him rest assured you are getting with the Windies' most reliable batsman in this format over the last 12 months.

His 498 runs just pip Shiv Chanderpaul's 432. Chanderpaul has a brilliant record against South Africa. He has scored more runs against them than any other West Indian (including Brian Lara) and averages an impressive 44. Other value could come in the form of Narsingh Deonarine. He is the third top runscorer over the last 12 months and will come under the auspices of Any Other Batsman.

AB De Villiers, Graeme Smith, JP Duminy and Kallis have all top scored in the last five head-to-heads. That does not help a great deal. Kallis, unsurprisingly, is South Africa's all-time top runscorer against WI with 1,437 runs at an average of 54.

That is all very well but what if we throw away the tried and trusted rule for working out averages (not including not outs)? Kallis stands up well with 42 runs every time he goes to the crease but the winner is De Villiers who has a mark of 47.

Ed Hawkins says: back AB De Villiers for top WI bat at [5.50] or better

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