ODI Betting: Stick with captain Clarke in Sydney

ODI preview / Andrew Hughes / 25 February 2012 /

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Clarke can lead Australia to the finals

"India’s performances have dipped alarmingly in their last two games and they have the feel of a team that have nothing left to give."

With two games to go, India are fast running out of chances to save their tournament, but Andrew Hughes thinks their minds are already on the flight home.

February 26, Australia v India, Sydney, Live on Sky Sports 2, 03:20 GMT

Team News
Australia's team selection hinges on the fitness of Shane Watson. If he is anywhere near ready, he will go straight into the team at the expense of Daniel Christian, with Matthew Wade dropping down to bat at seven. Otherwise, they may consider bringing in Clint McKay for Ryan Harris who leaked a few runs on Friday.

Despite the return of captain M S Dhoni, his controversial top order rotation policy will not be reinstated and Virender Sehwag, Gautam Gambhir and Sachin Tendulkar will all play. The injuries to Zaheer Khan and Vinay Kumar mean that Irfan Pathan will keep his place and Praveen Kumar will come into the team.

Venue and Conditions
Traditionally, Sydney offers a sound batting surface and although Australia were skittled out for 158 in their last game there, that was more to do with poor application from the batsmen and disciplined Sri Lankan bowling than any demons in the pitch. That game was reduced to a 40 over contest and we could be in for another Duckworth-Lewis affected match as the forecast is for thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Match Odds
India's performances have dipped alarmingly in their last two games and they have the feel of a team that have nothing left to give. The apparent discontent centred on Dhoni and Sehwag may have been overplayed by the media, but it's pretty clear that the Indian camp is not a happy one and it wouldn't be a surprise if one or two players were already thinking fondly of their seats on the plane home.

Although it is clear that the senior players have been unhappy with the rotation policy, they simply haven't contributed as well as they should have, whilst the younger batsmen, given plenty of opportunities, have not stepped up. Add in some indifferent bowling, typically sloppy fielding and Zaheer's recurring injury problems and you have a recipe for an early exit from the competition.

Australia haven't been at their best but it looks like they've sorted out their batting order and if Watson is fit, that could be the last piece in the jigsaw. Odds of [1.64] about an Australian win may not appeal too much but they are justified and I expect the Aussies to seal their place in the finals on Sunday.

Top Australia Batsman
David Warner's revival fizzled out with a tame dismissal in Hobart on Friday where the star of the show was Peter Forrest. He is high on confidence at the moment and odds of [5.5] are tempting, but the man to be on is captain Michael Clarke. He scored a solid 79 on his return to the side and got them pretty quickly too. He goes well on his home ground and should be backed at [5.0] or better.

Top India Batsman
Despite batting at six, Dhoni has been the most reliable choice in the top Indian batsman market, but the big names at the top of the order are all overdue a score. Putting money on Sehwag is a bit of a lottery whilst Gambhir looked a bit scrappy last time out so perhaps it's time to go with Tendulkar at [4.5]

Featured Market
If you had to bet on Sehwag or Tendulkar to save your life, who would get your money, the reckless swinger or the greatest batsman of the modern era? There's no contest and it's definitely worth considering backing 'Tendulkar + 0.5' in the 'Tendulkar v Sehwag' market if you can get [1.7] or better.

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