ODI preview / Andrew Hughes / 18 February 2012 /

The tourists are getting their act together while Australia are deteriorating fast and Andrew Hughes can see only one outcome in Brisbane

February 19, Australia v India, Brisbane, Live on Sky Sports 2, 03:20 GMT

Team News
Michael Clarke is still not fit so Ricky Ponting will take over the reins once more. With Mitchell Marsh also injured and replacement call-ups George Bailey and Jon Holland unlikely to go straight into the team, the only change we could see at the Gabba is the experienced Ben Hilfenhaus coming in for Mitchell Starc.

Virender Sehwag's back injury has ended India's bizarre top order rotation experiment so Gautam Gambhir and Sachin Tendulkar will open. The good news for Indian fans is that Zaheer Khan is available and if he plays it is likely to be at the expense of Umesh Yadav rather than Irfan Pathan.

Venue and Conditions
There have been seven centuries in the last ten ODIs in Brisbane and expansive stroke players tend to do well there as the bounce is usually true and the ball comes nicely onto the bat. But it also offers plenty for quick bowlers, particularly those adept at exploiting the often humid swing-friendly conditions. Both these teams have reasons to enjoy playing there, as India have won their last three ODIs at the venue and Australia their last four.

Match Odds
Given Australia's form it is quite a surprise to see them still as short as [1.73] in the Match Odds market. Their promising start to the tournament has been undermined by two poor performances, particularly against Sri Lanka on Friday, when their batting collapsed dramatically and they put in some sloppy work in the field.

I'd expect an Australian team to sort out the shoddy fielding, but their batting is a much bigger problem and it is the absence of Clarke as a batsman that will hurt them as much as his missing leadership skills. With the top three men in the order all out of form and a rookie batting at four, their middle order is exposed far too often and they can't continue to rely on David Hussey to do all the spadework.

By contrast, India have shaken off their Test series nightmare and are starting to show why they are World Champions. They haven't hit top form yet, but their confidence is returning and they have worked out a method of playing in Australia. With further improvement likely they are an easy choice at [2.34] in the Match Odds market.

Top Australian Batsman
With so many of the Aussie batsmen out of form, there are few options in this market at the moment and it boils down to a choice between the Hussey brothers. David is the obvious selection at around [7.0] but Michael is a consistent performer in ODIs and is also worth a look at [6.0] or better.

Top Indian Batsman
It's encouraging for India that Suresh Raina and Rohit Sharma coped well against the Australian quicks last time but neither look as though they are about to score big and it's best to side with the men in form, Gautam Gambhir and M S Dhoni. Gambhir has the advantage of batting at the top of the order and he is the selection at [5.0] or more.

Featured Market
Ricky Ponting can't buy a run at the moment and it makes sense to oppose him in the 'Kohli v Ponting' market. Back Virat Kohli - 0.5 at [1.75] or better.

Recommended Bet
India to beat Australia at 2.34

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