ODI preview / Michael Vaughan / 08 July 2011 /

A real turning wicket is expected at Old Trafford on Saturday and that means there's only one side we can be supporting, says Michael Vaughan.

For the neutral it's the best possible scenario going into the last match, with the series tied at 2-2.

We've seen how dangerous Sri Lanka can be on good wickets with both bat and ball and how devastating England's seam bowling attack can be when the ball is doing something. Alastair Cook has shown that he's both a thinking, resourceful captain and a batsman who has the potential to really make his mark as an ODI opener. Craig Kieswetter has made a positive return to the side and Jade Dernbach has shown good temperament when taking wickets in the last match after being very expensive up to that point.

What can we expect from the deciding game then? The answer is that it all depends on the wicket and I'm pretty confident it's going to be a track offering plenty of assistance to the spinners. That means two things. Firstly, that Stuart Broad is likely to miss out with Samit Patel coming in. And secondly that the wicket should give Sri Lanka the edge because they have slightly the better spinners and most certainly have the better batsmen when it comes to playing spin. I don't expect a particularly high-scoring match but if Tillekeratne Dilshan's men bat and score 250, I think they'll be able to defend it. If they have to chase that I'm pretty sure we'll see a repeat of Sunday's events where they scored quickly early on and then calmly managed the run chase over the last few overs.

Other betting opportunities lie in the form of Graeme Swann. I've discussed just why he's such a dangerous bowler and I'm sure he'll find Old Trafford to his liking. Muttiah Muralitharan loved his time at Lancashire a few years back, taking wickets for fun, and this could be the match where Swann adds a few scalps to an ever-impressive economy rate. At [4.0] he's a good bet to be England's leading wicket-taker on Saturday.

My other bet for this match is to side with that man Eoin Morgan. This could be a track where the openers find life quite hard and it would be just like the Irishman to play a super innings in the deciding match of the series.

Don't forget to play my brand new game where you need to predict the total number of runs scored in Saturday's decider. We didn't have a winner for the last match so there's a rollover this time and that means there's up to £2,000 up for grabs! My money is on 480.

Listen to Michael's views here

Recommended Bets:

2pts - Back Graeme Swann to be top England wicket-taker @ [4.0]
2pts - Back Sri Lanka to win @ [2.5]
1pt - Back Eoin Morgan to be top runscorer for England @ [7.0]

To find out how the points system works when it comes to betting advice click here.

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