ODI preview / Ed Hawkins / 14 September 2011 /

Ed Hawkins sees no reason why in Cardiff on Friday the tourists will suddenly find a winning formula with the departure gate calling

England v India, Swalec Stadium, 14:00 (Live on Sky Sports 1 & HD1)

England

The home side tweaked their XI for the last match at Lord's and there is a possibility they could revert to type for the outing in Cardiff. That means Steve Finn, who went for 5.58 an over, could be usurped by Jade Dernbach, the man he replaced.

Dernbach's skiddy style may be more suited to the swing-friendly conditions in Wales. It also gives England better options at the death.

Ian Bell and Ravi Bopara form a powerful-looking engine room at Nos 4 and 5 and they performed well last time out. Bopara, with 96, was particularly impressive.

India
On the brink of victory it rather summed up India's tour that as they were about to break their duck the heavens denied them. They must be dreadfully dispirited and aching for home.
It would be a surprise if they made any changes after what has to be their most impressive performance of the tour. But Rahul Dravid, who is averaging only 13, could be replaced by Manoj Tiwary or Sub Badrinath.

Venue and conditions
The first port of call when discussing a match in Wales is the weather forecasters. At this early stage only a light rain shower is forecast so we have a good chance of getting the full quota of overs in.

Cardiff's pitch is not one for big runs. In seven completed first innings on the ground since it first hosted an ODI, the average score is 221.

However, the most remarkable statistic is the record of sides batting second. In the six completed matches, all of them have been won by the chasing side. That is a bias that is difficult to ignore, especially as in the two CB40 county matches there this season, the trend continued.

Match odds
India are getting shorter as this series comes to a head. Despite already being beaten, they are [2.34] for the win which is skinnier than they were two games ago. England are [1.73].

It is tempting indeed to side with England because it is now virtually impossible to make a case for the visitors. They haven't won all tour in any format, in any conditions, with any combination of players. So why will they start now?

Perhaps worst of all, the conditions in Cardiff are expected to highlight exactly why they have been so poor: an inability to play a seaming or swinging ball.

England have not often found themselves in a dead rubber at home with the series won. It happened last year when they lost the last two to Australia but previous to that you have to go back to 2008 when they beat South Africa at Lord's.

Will England have taken their foot off the gas? We are guessing but remember that if you say 'definitely', how hard will India be trying with the departure gate calling?

Top England batsman
There is little ground form to go save for Ian Bell's 88 against Pakistan on this wicket. It looks as though it is unlikely to help the hitters, those who go hard at the ball, so Craig Kieswetter may be one to avoid. Bell is [2.06] for a 50 while Jonathan Trott, who loves a graft, is an option at the same price.

The top-ranked runs bet could be under 82.5 runs for the highest individual score for either team. Six batsmen have passed the mark in the games so far but the pitch could be as jaded as the players.. You should be able to go under at around [1.80]

Top India batsman
Had Dravid not been in such awful form this could have been one for him. But we feel for him. The last thing he needs is a green top and having to bed down mentally for a war of attrition after he has carried his team-mates all summer. MS Dhoni, who showed plenty of guts at HQ, could be the man. He is priced at [4.60] under Any Other, which also includes Tiwary and Badrinath if they get the call.

Recommended bet
England @ [1.73]

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