ODI preview / Ed Hawkins / 21 September 2010 /

England and Pakistan have conjured a thrilling climax in the one-day series among a backdrop of back-biting and back-stabbing. Ed Hawkins tries to put emotion to one side when analysing the deciding game at the Rose Bowl

Team news
The irony is a cruel one. This one-day series was considered largely irrelevant as the spot-fixing row rumbled on. But as it has gathered pace, dragging bystanders into its path, passions have been ignited and we have a thrilling climax.

Before corruption concerns were voiced England and Pakistan were getting along quite happily. Now they are at each other's throats in keeping with contests past (biased umpires, Shakoor Rana, ball tampering).

Jonathan Trott and Wahab Riaz clashed in the nets prior to the fourth one-day international and in Wednesday's winner-takes-all clash at the Rose Bowl, we are likely to see a match which both sets of players are frantic to win. In their eyes, whoever wins is vindicated.

Pakistan should be unchanged from the team which levelled the series at Lord's. Abdul Razzaq has been the difference between the sides since Pakistan picked him two games ago. England have to find a way to stop him blasting them away at the end of an innings.

England will probably be unchanged, too. Ian Bell is expected to retain his place at the expense of Ravi Bopara.

Venue and conditions
On the south coast, with the floodlights on full beam and moisture in the evening air, one could be forgiven for thinking batting second will be tricky. Not so. Three of the four day-night games have been won by the side chasing. However, so far in this series three from four have been won by the side batting first.

There have been 10 completed ODIs at the ground but one of those was USA v Australia. In the nine sensible matches, the first-innings average is a healthy 241. Within those parameters, it makes it the best batting wicket of the series.

Still, no team has passed 300 yet (in the series or on the ground) so it would be unwise to expect a run feast. A score between 250-270 first up looks likely. No rain is forecast.

Match odds
With two wins on the spin, Pakistan have gained some respect on the match-odds market. They are [2.66] to take the spoils having been [3.40] before the third ODI. England are [1.59].

The latter price is one we should be far more comfortable about taking. There is a suspicion, however, that England have allowed Pakistan to get under their skin and are not necessarily playing with their heads.

A better ploy would be to get with the hosts if they hit [2.00] or more in-running, which would seem fair given how topsy-turvy the last two have been.

Top batsman
Eoin Morgan hit 103 off 85 balls against Australia the last time England played at the Rose Bowl, a four-wicket win. And he is the second highest runscorer at the ground in ODIs. Ian Bell is top. The others in the top five are Michael Clarke, Paul Collingwood and Andrew Strauss.

Note how they are all similar types of players, renowned for finding the gaps rather than the ropes. In other words, shy away from the hitters. Morgan, at [5.80] on Any Other, is a perfectly acceptable wager while Mohammad Yousuf, [5.10], also has a decent record at the venue - one fifty in two outings.

Morgan is likely to be around [3.75] for a half-century while MoYo is [2.74].

Featured market
The highest individual score over/under mark is set at 82.5. In the 10 games played, 10 batsmen have passed the mark.

Ed Hawkins says : back England if they hit [2.00] in-running

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