ODI preview / Ed Hawkins / 02 July 2010 /

Ed Hawkins cannot fathom why England, who have won the series don't forget, are outsiders to beat the old enemy again at Lord's on Saturday

Team news
Australia would be crackers not to stick with the winning formula. At The Oval, Shaun Tait, Doug Bollinger, Ryan Harris and Steven Smith formed a bowling attack which, had they been able to field in game one of the series, may have produced a different result.

It should not have escaped the attention that Australia's win was built on contributions from (finally) Ricky Ponting and Michael Clarke. The visitors need their stellar pair to come to the party again hand in hand.

England should be unchanged although there are question marks over Craig Kieswetter and Kevin Pietersen, who average 14 and 24 respectively in the series. Certainly Kieswetter's mark is no way near good enough and the jury has to be out on his international prospects.

Venue and conditions
Lord's has a reputation as a batsman's paradise. It does not appear to be justified, however. The average first-innings score in the last 10 ODIs is just 217. No side has passed 300 since England made 325 against India in 2002 - 16 matches ago.

Strategies based on those stats - and the fact that batsmen have hardly lit up the series - could make a lay of 275 runs or more for the side batting first. The sides have met three times at HQ since 2005 - twice last year - and the first-innings scores were 220, 249 and 223.

The highest individual score market is also of note. In those three matches the top scores were 63, 56 and 82. You can go over/under 82.5 runs in this contest. No rain is forecast.

Match odds
Is it harsh to criticise England for a failure to win at The Oval? After all, Australia were on the ropes, their confidence apparently in pieces. Probably not, although the match odds market has reacted in ridiculous fashion. Why are England outsiders at [2.26] with Australia [1.78]?

The only possible explanation is that the market has been influenced by a belief that England, who have an indifferent record of 12 wins from their last 21 at Lord's, are not trying as hard because the series is won. It might be true but framing a wager by trying to guess what is going on in players' minds is bonkers.

England have won five of the last seven meetings between the sides in all limited-overs cricket. It is the only statistic that counts. They have to be backed at the odds.

Top batsman
Ponting will be the darling of the Australia top-bat market after finding form with 92 in south London. He is Australia's second most successful batsman in terms of runs at Lord's. The Australia captain is [4.10]. Clarke, who top scored there last year, is [5.40].

The value, however, is Mike Hussey. He has an extraordinary record at the ground. In List A games he averages a whopping 90, with one century and a 50. He comes under Any Other Batsman at a tremendous [6.20].

England's batsman have poor records. Andrew Strauss averages only (29), Pietersen (28) and Paul Collingwood (29). Perhaps it will be left to Eoin Morgan, on his home ground, again to do the business. He is [5.30]. Strauss and Colly top-scored in the last two meetings against Australia at Lord's.

Featured market
You might be able to get around [2.50] for Hussey to score a 50.

Ed Hawkins says: back England at [2.26]

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