ODI preview / Ed Hawkins / 20 January 2011 /

The sides travel to Hobart for game two in the early hours of Friday. Ed Hawkins uncovers a couple of value wagers to entice you to get up early

Team news
All change as the impact of an arduous and stressful tour starts to hit home. Mike Hussey and Graeme Swann, key men for Australia and England respectively, have hobbled to the wayside.

Hussey has had surgery on a hamstring injury and will miss the rest of the series while Swann, who took a whack on the knee in England loss at the MCG, will be absent for at least four games.

Shaun Marsh will replace Hussey while swapping the spinners around - Nathan Hauritz for Xavier Doherty - would make sense given Australia have left the latter out of their World Cup squad.

James Tredwell should replace Swann but what do England, still without James Anderson, do with Chris Tremlett? Do they leave him out as they have done for the World Cup and shoehorn in Luke Wright who is in the 15? And what of Paul Collingwood, does he return to find form before the tournament?

One definite change is the axing of opener and wicketkeeper Steve Davies for Matt Prior. It is a scandalous decision which does nothing to inspire confidence about England claiming glory in India. Prior is expected to open the batting. In 27 innings as opener Prior scored one 50, averaged 25 and had a strike rate of just 75. Davies has one 50 in six innings, averages 39 and strikes at 108.

Venue and conditions
Hobart does not have a great reputation for heat and sun and the forecasters are expecting the Tasmanian city to be at its stubborn best. There is a 40 per cent chance of rain for this contest. That ties in with the feeling that a high-scoring game is unlikely because of the sporting nature of the surface.

In the last 10 years there have been 12 ODIs played at the Bellerive Oval with an average first-innings score of 258. Only once during that period has a side passed 300. Nine of those totals were for 250 or more but only surpassed 280.

Laying whichever side bats for 275 or more on the innings runs market could well be the wager of the day.

Match odds
England were heavily beaten at the MCG thanks to Shane Watson's majestic innings. And as feared England are beginning to look a little jaded. The dropping of Davies suggests tired minds as well as bodies.

Still, they are outsiders of the two at [2.20] and that gulf cannot be justified on what we have seen throughout the trip, particularly after the loss of Mike Hussey who has been Australia's best batsman in this format over the last 12 months.

Indeed, the Hobart conditions should suit Ajmal Shahzad, Tim Bresnan and Tremlett. The trio destroyed Australia A at the venue back in November.

The possibility of rain also means the sides should be closer. The D-L Method and rain interrupting an innings are important factors which can make these games much closer.

Top batsman
Ian Bell made 192 in the game against Australia A and although punters may be getting a little impatient with him on this trip, he could be a snip at around [5.60]. He is [2.30] to score a 50. Andrew Strauss is the [5.10] jolly with Kevin Pietersen [5.20].

If the ball does bend and seam, however, it could be worth looking lower down the order. At the moment Davies is still listed so Prior is included in Any Other but Eoin Morgan and Collingwood also come under that header at around [4.30].

Marsh top scored for Australia in their last ODI at the Bellerive. He is [5.50] under Any Other and given that he could well open the batting that might be value. Watson is [4.30] and [2.30] to score a 50.

Recommended bets: back Any Other top England bat at [4.30], back England at [2.20]

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