ODI preview / Ed Hawkins / 28 October 2010 / 1

Pakistan and South Africa meet in Abu Dhabi to contest the first one-day international. Ed Hawkins has uncovered a couple of cracking betting options

Team news
Pakistan, the pariahs of the international game, hove back into punting view once more with a one-day international series. This time the outcasts are playing in the UAE against South Africa with the first two matches in Abu Dhabi before heading to Dubai for the final three.

Given the spot-fixing controversy surrounding Pakistan's tour of England it would seem extraordinary that the ICC are not slightly nervous about matches taking place in Dubai, a place where the illegal betting overlords are believed to reside.

Pakistan have already been beaten 2-0 in the Twenty20 series against the South Africans as a much-changed squad gets to renew acquaintances and grudges. In from the cold come Younis Khan and Misbah-ul-Haq, moves which give Pakistan a decent middle-order.

There is no place for Kamran Akmal. The Incredible Zulq, Zulqarnain Haider, will take the gloves. Shoaib Akhtar, Umar Gul, Abdul Razzaq and Saeed Ajmal form the bowling attack with leggie and skipper Shahid Afridi also key.

South Africa have added pace bowler Rusty Theron to their squad after he took four wickets in the last Twenty20 match. Just as well, because South Africa are suffering from injury problems.

Jacques Kallis missed the two Twenty20 internationals and is a doubt with a back injury. Dale Steyn is definitely out while Morne Morkel is also struggling. Charl Langeveldt and Lonwobo Tsotsobe should form an attack with Albie Morkel, Theron and spinner Johan Botha.

Otherwise the usual suspects are present. Graeme Smith leads, AB de Villiers keeps wicket, which in effect gives them an extra man, and JP Duminy and Hashim Amla are also in the XI.

Venue and conditions
From the two Twenty20 internationals at the Sheikh Zayed Stadium it would be fair to reckon that it is a tricky batting wicket. Pakistan managed only 119 and 120 when asked to bat first. But we have to factor in that their batting looks pretty hopeless so it is important to delve further into the files.

In total, 14 ODIs have been played at the venue, producing a first-innings average of 254. Only two sides have passed 300 or more. Nine from those 14 have been won by the side batting first. Pakistan have been involved in all 14, winning eight.

There have been eight centuries scored (the market goes [2.02] that we get another one) while the highest individual score over/under mark is set at 82.5. That score has been breached 11 times.

Match odds
There is little faith in Pakistan at [3.10] with South Africa priced at [1.46]. It would be quite easy, however, to make a case for Pakistan at the odds and it would not be stretching the imagination that they can win this contest.

For a start, South Africa's injury problems make them a little too short for our liking. Also, the presence of Younis, Misbah and the big-hitting Razzaq in the middle order more than makes up for a shaky opening partnership.

That, combined with the potential for Ajmal, Afridi and Mo Hafeez to keep South Africa quiet with spin on a wicket which has taken turn in the past, should mean we can be confident that Pakistan are a useful trade option.

They should be capable of trading at lower than [3.10] so have a nibble and look to lay off if they manage to claim superiority for a spell.

Top batsman
Of the available players, Younis is Pakistan's top runscorer on this wicket. He has 357 runs but an average of 32 is not big enough to warrant backing him for top-bat honours at [3.05] under Any Other.

Instead, Misbah at a whopping [7.00] rates the better bet. He averages a massive 64 on this ground. Afridi, given how quickly he scores runs, is a threat at [8.00] but he averages only 23. Smith is [4.50] jolly for South Africa top-bat. He top scored in the last T20.

Recommended bet: back Misbah for top bat at [7.00]

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1. waseem arshad | 29 October 2010

   if pakistan play first and open with hafeez and imran farhat that should be effective better drop shahzaid and include asad shafique who is technically very strong. one down should be younis khan. after that asad shafique that should be good batting order but the most important thing if all palyers play for pakistan not for them they can beat south africa not only in this oneday also in oneday series and in test series.

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