First ODI Betting: Australia v England

ODI preview / Ed Hawkins / 15 January 2011 /

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Shaun Tait has a good record against England

"England haven’t lost a one-day series since going down 6-1 to Australia after the 2009 Ashes"

England's defeat in the final Twenty20 match has given punters an opportunity which Ed Hawkins thinks shouldn't be missed ahead of the first ODI on Sunday morning

Team news
This match is being viewed as a last trial for Australia's World Cup hopefuls. Mitchell Johnson, their leading wicket-taker in the format for the last two years, has been rested along with Peter Siddle and Nathan Hauritz.

With the squads being named on Wednesday, Australia instead want to have a look at Brett Lee, Shaun Tait and Xavier Doherty. Immediately that strikes one as a potentially expensive bowling attack.

Shane Watson and Brad Haddin are expected to open followed by Michael Clarke, Cameron White and the Hussey brothers. Ricky Ponting is still injured.

England are without James Anderson (rested) until the fourth match and Stuart Broad (injury) for the series. But in Chris Woakes, Ajmal Shahzad and Chris Tremlett they have three capable of bowlers who would not disgrace themselves if they made the World Cup.

Venue and conditions
The last 10 first-innings totals in ODIs at the MCG are: 239/324/256/225/271/221/184/159/252/290. That is an average of 242. Seven from the last 11 have been won by the side chasing. There is no discernible bias for floodlit contests. Out of 84 matches, 41 were won by the side bowling first. Isolated showers are forecast but it is not worth worrying about factoring that into wagers.

Match odds
England's narrow four-run defeat at the MCG on Friday has made an unnecessary impact on the odds. On the series and match odds market, England have drifted and we need to take advantage. Australia are dreadful value at [1.87].

It is peculiar that England are the [2.04] jollies to win the series yet are [2.12] outsiders to win the match. With Australia resting key players, it is a no brainer that England are the bet.

Their recent record stands up to scrutiny. They haven't lost a one-day series since going down 6-1 to Australia after the 2009 Ashes and when the sides last met, England won 3-2 having taken an unassailable lead after the first three.

Dangers to England supremacy is Tait, who took eight wickets at 12 in that series, and allrounder Watson who is the sort of a player which is viewed with envious eyes by England.

Top batsman
Mike Hussey is Australia's top ODI runscorer in the last two years with 1,991 runs. Ponting is second with Watson third on 1,784. It is worth focusing on these two for top-bat bets on the home side. Mike Hussey is [5.40] for honours and [2.22] for a 50. Watson is [4.20] and [2.22]. Hussey top scored in Australia's defeat to Sri Lanka the last time they played at the MCG.

Michael Clarke, who top scored for Australia in the 2010 series, is [5.40] for top bat and [2.10] for a 50.

Kevin Pietersen, who returns to the XI after being dropped from the ODI side, is [4.30] to be top bat but the value lies elsewhere. Eoin Morgan and Paul Collingwood, two reliable battlers in the middle order, look inflated at [5.90] and [7.60] respectively. The returning skipper Andrew Strauss might be one to lay for a 50 at around the [2.70] mark.

Recommended bet: England to win first ODI at [2.12]

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