Indian Premier League - IPL / Edward Hammond-Kenny / 20 April 2010 /

The fact these two meet in the semis comes as a surprise to many, who thought they'd only lock horns in the final. Mumbai are favourites after topping the table but any side with Bangalore's batting line-up can't be written off, says Edward Hammond-Kenny.

Venue and Conditions

After 56 games in IPL 3 the eight teams have finally been whittled down to four and now it's time to get serious. The first semi final will see the Royal Challengers Bangalore take on the Mumbai Indians and for the winners the spoils couldn't be higher (as far as domestic cricket goes): a place in the final and also a guaranteed spot in the lucrative Champions League this autumn.

Originally this match was scheduled to be played in Bangalore, but (understandably) given there were two explosions before the last Bangalore home game, it has now been switched. Fortunately for Mumbai the game is now to be played in ... Mumbai, at the huge Dr DY Patil Sports Academy, where 60,000 Sachin Tendulkar fans will be out in force to cheer on their hero. Only two IPL matches have been played there so far so there are no obvious trends but the wicket does appear to provide assistance to the spinners.

Team News

Mumbai rested a number of players for their dead rubber match against Kolkata, so expect to see many changes from that game. Tendulkar, Kieron Pollard, Harbhajan Singh, Lasith Malinga and Zaheer Khan will all come back in, while Dwayne Bravo will likely be the most high-profile overseas player to miss out.

Bangalore were soundly thumped in their last match against Mumbai, though they were chasing an imposing 192 to win. They appear to have a pretty settled team though, with Kevin Pietersen and Ross Taylor having found favouritism in the middle order at the expense of Cameron White. The South African duo of Jacques Kallis and Dale Steyn will round off the overseas contingent.

Match Odds

During the early stages of the tournament these two teams seemed to be in a class of their own, but while Mumbai kicked on, Bangalore faltered and only ended up making the top four by virtue of their impressive net run rate. They remain a high class outfit packed with match-winning talent though and this is reflected in the match odds prices. Mumbai are slight favourites at [1.82], while Bangalore are available at [2.16].

The winner of the Steyn v Tendulkar clash may prove decisive, so Mumbai will look to see off the dangerous paceman in the early overs then look to attack the Bangalore back-up seamers, who look like the weakest link for the Royal Challengers at the moment. Pollard and JP Duminy will attempt to boost the scoring rate in the later overs if all goes to plan.

Bangalore have an imposing batting line up but they have been handicapping themselves recently by getting off to very slow starts in innings. The key will be for a reasonably-paced start from the likes of Kallis and Pietersen, allowing plenty of time for Ross Taylor and Robin Uthappa to unleash their power and clear the ropes later on. This is easier said than done of course, given the effectiveness of the Mumbai bowling attack.

Top Batsman

A few weeks ago the only reasonable selection for top Bangalore batsman would have been Kallis, but he is now in a rut having, scored just 41 runs in his last four outings. He is still favourite for the market though so there may well be value lurking elsewhere. Robin Uthappa has been a revelation with some brutal power hitting and is in contention, but in-form Kevin Pietersen, on offer at [5.0] looks like the natural pick.

The obvious favourite in the Mumbai top batsman market is the 'Little Master' Tendulkar. He is consistent and prolific but at odds of just [3.0] this is all factored into his price. At a higher price of around [6.4], in-form JP Duminy may well prove attractive.

Featured Market

Mumbai are very slight favourites in the Most Sixes market, yet if the expected batting line ups are correct, the Bangalore batters have hit about 30% more sixes than their Mumbai counterparts so far. Backing Bangalore at [2.1] to hit the most sixes looks a natural selection.

Trivia

Tendulkar and Kallis are the highest scoring batsman in IPL 3 and are the only two to have scored over 500 runs. Both share the same top score of 89.

Best Bet

Ed Hammond-Kenny says: Back Kevin Pietersen to top score for Bangalore at [5.0] or better.

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