Indian Premier League - IPL / Ed Hawkins / 24 April 2010 /

After 58 matches and almost seven weeks, the IPL final is upon us. Sachin Tendulkar's Mumbai meet MS Dhoni's Chennai in a mouthwatering contest. But, says Ed Hawkins, it should be rudimentary for bettors

Team news
Mumbai must decide whether they want to gamble for a second time. The decision to pair Lasith Malinga and Dilhara Fernando, instead of one from Dwayne Bravo or Ryan McLaren against Bangalore in the semi-final, was a strange one.

Of course, it paid off but in terms of balance it makes little sense. Bravo or McLaren bowl more than useful overs and offer vital runs. Certainly their backers would be happier if one of them played.

Chennai are unlikely to make any changes to their team following a fine performance against Deccan. Muttiah Muralitharan returned to the side in that game while Doug Bollinger continued his mean streak.

They should give serious consideration to dropping Matthew Hayden, who is on a horror run with the willow. Mike Hussey or Justin Kemp are more than capable replacements.

Venue and conditions
The DY Patil stadium has a toss bias which should impact on your betting. In the four matches played there so far (not including Deccan v Bangalore in the third place play-off) all have been won by the side batting second. It is clear the surface wears as a match progresses, making it difficult for batsmen to hit through the line of the ball with confidence. In the first innings, the average run rate is 8.23. In the second it is just 6.9.

Match odds
The IPL is under investigation in India for corruption with a charge sheet longer than the UK political party manifestos put together. Another question to ask is why, after almost seven weeks of cricket and 58 matches, the tournament will be decided by the toss of a coin?

It is clear the DY Patil stadium surface is not up to scratch for a game of this importance. No matter. It doesn't bother us punters. Instead of spending time working out which side is the stronger all we need to do is back the team that bats first. Job done.

Understandably, Mumbai are [1.86 favourites] with Chennai [2.14]. By all means back Chennai on the basis that in a pick 'em affair because of the toss, they are the value at grander odds. In previous meetings in IPL3, Mumbai and Chennai have one win each.

Mumbai, this column's tip for glory, produced probably their best performance of the competition in the semi-final and finally put to bed the notion that they are a one-man team. Sachin Tendulkar's failure brought the best out of the rest and Chennai will know they are up against a tougher unit than previously thought.

The key man for MS Dhoni's Chennai will be Doug Bollinger. CSK beat Mumbai with Bollinger in the side after he missed the first match and his economy rate of 6.51 is the fifth best of the competition. Imagine the impact Bollinger could make if CSK bowl second.

Featured market
There are non-believers out there. Tendulkar has been criticised for not producing when the pressure is on, a claim which was again made when he went cheaply in the semi. But consider that in 50-over tournament finals for India he adds 10 runs to his average.

Tendulkar, who is averaging 41 runs every time he goes to the crease, has been paired with Hayden in a match runs bet. Hayden is averaging only 22 and should be taken on. His last five scores read: 8, 5, 1, 0 and 9. It may also be worth laying him for 25 runs or more.

Top batsman
All eyes on Tendulkar again. The Little Master, who should recover from a hand injury, top scored in both previous meetings against Chennai and he is likely to go off as short as [3.10]. Hayden, who top scored in one of those, is a dreadful jolly at [3.25].

We should try to be a bit cannier with our top-bat betting, though. We know that runs will be hard to come by in the second innings and that the hitters could struggle so instead consider a wager in-running on the nudges and nurdlers.

Top candidate for Chennai is Suresh Raina, 83 off 52 against Mumbai previously. He is [4.00]. Any Other Batsman, at [5.00], could include Mike Hussey if he gets a game. For Mumbai, JP Duminy at [5.00] stands out.

Trivia
The BCCI's top brass will refuse to attend the final to distance themselves from Lalit Modi, IPL's under-investigation commissioner.

Ed Hawkins says: back the side batting first

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