IPL Betting / Ed Hawkins / 14 April 2010 /

Chennai and Delhi meet in a crucial contest in the battle for a last-spot. The sides are going through rich and poor form respectively and Ed Hawkins is struggling to understand why the hosts are not shorter

Team news
Chennai crushed Kolkata Knight Riders in their last match to go second but anyone reckoning that they will keep the same XI need only look at their predilection for the twist to know there could be changes. Muttiah Muralitharan, who had missed the previous two matches, came in along with Albie Morkel.

That meant there was no place for Mike Hussey, who would be a calming influence on the middle order and, no doubt, their backers. Still, with Suresh Raina in generous form (an unbeaten 78 against KKR) and Doug Bollinger a miser with the ball, they are in healthy shape.

Delhi have been less successful with their changes. AB De Villiers and Andrew McDonald replaced Farveez Maharoof and Daniel Vettori against Mumbai and they were duly hammered. Vettori should return as could Tillakaratne Dilshan at the expense of Paul Collingwood. Colly batted at a lowly number six against Mumbai and notched another failure.

Venue and conditions
The Chidambaram stadium is not a great help to trend spotters. Just look at the first-innings scores so far: 139, 165, 246, 161, 136 and 190. There is no coherence to those numbers which leads us to believe that the surface is a good cricket wicket, offering a fair battle between bat and ball. This is true when it comes to the toss bias; there isn't one. Three games out of five have been won by the side batting first with one tie.

Match odds
In a dare-not-lose game for both, these sides are at different ends of the form spectrum. Chennai have won four of their last five and their last four at home. Delhi, on a disastrous run, have lost their last three, two in comprehensive fashion.

So it is something of a surprise to see the match odds market struggling to split the pair. Chennai are [1.90] for a win which would almost guarantee a last-four spot while Delhi are [2.00]. Granted, second-placed Chennai are only ahead of Delhi in fourth on run rate but their recent fortunes are stark enough to suggest the hosts should be shorter.

In a tournament where it is child's play to make a case for one side over the other thanks to the embarrassment of rich talent on each of the eight teams, our minds have to be made up by odds. And when they are so clearly wrong, we have to take advantage. That's is the case here.

Yes, we respect a Delhi top order which could launch them into the stratosphere and, granted, Chennai's middle order looks a little wobbly, but MS Dhoni's side should probably be a point shorter than they are. Chennai's five-wicket stroll when the sides last met only reinforces that view.

Top batsman
Matt Hayden was formerly Mr Reliable in IPL. These days R stands for reprehensible value. Hayden has top scored just once in the last seven. Team-mates Raina and Murali Vijay have been the men to follow, each taking honours three times during that run. Hayden has the comfort of 93 against Delhi when the sides last met.

Virender Sehwag top scored in that game with 74 and the race for Delhi top bat would appear to be between him, opening pal David Warner and Gautam Gambhir.

Featured market
The average highest individual score at Chennai is a healthy 73 which brings a wager on a score of more than 68 runs sharply into focus. Vijay's brilliant 127 boosted that figure and it is interesting to note that in six matches, the magical 68 has been breached only three times.

Trivia
In IPL3 26 of the 47 matches (not including the tied contest between Chennai and King's XI Punjab) have been won by the side batting first. It's not a surprising statistic as it can often be tough in India chasing on slow and low pitches. But don't be surprised if the bias does not get more pronounced as we reach the business end. The pitches are getting worn, as are players' nerves.

Ed Hawkins says: back Chennai at [1.90]

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