Indian Premier League - IPL / Ed Hawkins / 02 April 2010 /

We're at the halfway point in IPL3, so as the competition for a semi-final place hots up we can expect plenty of jostling in the standings, right? Wrong. Ed Hawkins explains why the current front four will probably hold on

IT is one of the most robust and often-used adages of modern sport: 'the league table does not lie. Whatever the sport, cricket, rugby or football, it is rare that you will hear a coach or manager use it during a season. It is trotted out at the end of term, to ram home supremacy but most often to console followers of a team that has just not been good enough.

Until that dark day comes, though, any coach worth his salt will tell you that 'anything can happen' and 'we're close to putting a run of wins together'. The reality, of course, is that although anything can happen, it rarely does and said team don't put a run together because they're just not very good.

No doubt there are coaches or captains in the Indian Premier League who reckon that a top four finish and a semi-final place is still within their grasp. King's XI Punjab, who are bottom with only one win from seven, will make all the right noises but probably know they haven't a hope in hell. But Deccan, Chennai and Kolkata? Well, they can't get the clichés and mantras out fast enough.

At the exact half way point of this third IPL season (the 31st match between King's XI and Bangalore Royal Challengers takes place on Friday) everyone, from players, pundits and punters will take stock and try to identify which four sides will make it to the business end of the tournament. The table will be scrutinised, run rates calculated and remaining fixtures analysed.

It could be all a waste of time. In the previous two IPL seasons, only once has a team in the front four at the halfway stage failed to book a semi-final spot. So congratulations to Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore and Rajasthan.

In the inaugural IPL the top four after match 30 looked like this: Rajasthan, King's XI, Chennai and Delhi. How did it finish? Rajasthan, King's XI, Chennai and Delhi. Last year for the tournament in South Africa, Delhi and Chennai held on to first and second place respectively, Bangalore went on a charge from fifth to third to qualify (at the expense of Rajasthan) while Deccan were not budged from fourth spot.

It is a surprising trend. One could be forgiven for thinking that in a helter-skelter format and with each team boasting players who could turn a game on sixpence, that there would be far more movement in the section. But it shows that form in this competition holds. Rarely does a side suddenly discover a magic formula or suffer a dip in performance. It is about as important a lesson as one could learn when it comes to IPL.

Bangalore improved from a record of four wins in eight in the first half of 2009 to win four of their last six. The absence of Kevin Pietersen may have played a large part in that but in the two tournaments so far, they are the only side to have improved their win-loss ratio from the first half to the second.

Mumbai are [3.45} to win the tournament, with Delhi [4.20], Bangalore [4.90] and Rajasthan [12.50]. Given what has gone before it is difficult to see more than two of the current top four sliding out of contention. The most vulnerable appear to be Rajasthan, especially as they are only fourth from Kolkata on run rate. Sourav Ganguly's side are [12.50] for glory and [3.85] to make the final.

Deccan, last year's champions, are [12.00] to defend the title and [4.10] for the last two. It was fitting that the two sides most likely to break the monopoly (Chennai have played a game less than Deccan and have the same number of points) met in the 29th game on Wednesday with Kolkata producing a pulsating performance in front of a packed and partisan Eden Gardens.

The faithful appeared to lift Kolkata to new heights while bringing Deccan down; their fielding and bowling was shoddy. Kolkata have won two from three at the Gardens and four of their remaining six fixtures will be played at the cauldron. They might just do a Bangalore.

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