Indian Premier League - IPL / Andrew Hughes / 12 April 2010 /

The league stage of the IPL is drawing to a close and the points table could not be closer. Andrew Hughes previews Wednesday's clash between two teams desperate for the win that could seal their semi-final place.

Venue and Conditions

The Sawai Mansingh Stadium has been a fortress for Rajasthan who have won eight of the nine IPL matches they have played at the venue. The pitches there tend to have little in the way of bounce and are painfully slow even by Indian standards. This can make it tricky to time the ball and batsmen who try too hard to force the pace early in their innings can get themselves into trouble.

Team News

An ill-disciplined display from the seamers in the final overs of their game against Mumbai last time could persuade Rajasthan to recall either of their overseas quick bowlers, Morne Morkel or Shaun Tait. The only drawback to such a strategy is that one of the other foreigners would have to drop out and that would be harsh on either Adam Voges or Michael Lumb. It would also significantly weaken an already dodgy batting line-up.

Kevin Pietersen has been sitting on the sidelines of late and surely Bangalore can't leave it any longer before recalling their most expensive player, presumably at the expense of either Cameron White or Ross Taylor, both of whom disappointed last time. They may also try giving Jacques Kallis a different opening partner, possibly Sridharan Sriram, after Manesh Pandey failed again on Monday.

Match Odds

Both these teams need at least one win from their last two games to secure a semi-final place and neither would want to leave it to their last match, particularly as Rajasthan have to travel to a hostile Eden Gardens to take on Kolkata whilst Bangalore must face the best team in the tournament, Mumbai. So we can expect this contest to be a sharply contested affair.

It is hard to know what you are going to get from Rajasthan. Their batting has been brittle for most of the tournament, but against Mumbai last time, it was their seam bowling and fielding that looked ragged. Meanwhile, Bangalore have lost five of their last seven games and although their bowling appeared to improve against Deccan on Monday, the batting line-up still looks lop-sided with slow coaches Rahul Dravid and Jacques Kallis clogging up the top of the order with the result that the big hitters lower down have limited opportunity to make an impact.

However, though both these sides have their weaknesses, there are reasons to favour Rajasthan. For a start, home advantage could be crucial, with the Royals nearly unbeatable in Jaipur. And though, on paper, Bangalore are the stronger team, they lack Rajasthan's fighting spirit and ability to pull off unlikely victories. They also look to be low on confidence, whereas you can be sure that Shane Warne and Jeremy Snape will have the Royals fired up for this one. In the circumstances, likely odds of around [2.0] for the home side make the most appeal.

Top Batsman

Top Rajasthan batsman is a wide open market and a case can be made for all of the top six or seven. Michael Lumb can be destructive, but has not yet shown enough consistency and preference is for opener Numan Ojha at around [4.5] or the powerful Shane Watson, also at [4.5] or thereabouts.

With steady Kallis and Rahul Dravid both batting in the top three for Bangalore, those lower down the order are likely to have little time to establish themselves and so don't make much appeal in the top batsman market. There are signs that Kallis may just be starting to struggle a little so those in search of a reliable betting vehicle in this market should side with the former Indian captain at [5.0] or better.

Featured Market

Compared to some of the other IPL venues, sixes have proven relatively difficult to come by in Jaipur, with an average of just over eight maximums per IPL game. Bearing that in mind, you may want to consider backing '9 and Under' in the Total Sixes market at [3.0] or better.

Trivia

The Rajasthan state government has an uneasy relationship with the IPL and last week issued an edict banning fireworks, loud noises after ten o'clock, alcohol and 'obscene' cheerleading at the Sawai Mansingh Stadium.

Andrew Hughes says: Back Rajasthan to beat Bangalore at [2.0] or better.

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