Indian Premier League - IPL / Tobias Gourlay / 10 April 2012 / 1

Sachin Tendulkar's finger injury might rule him out again, in which case Tobias Gourlay thinks Rajasthan are a value bet to beat Mumbai

Mumbai Indians v Rajsathan Royals

Starts Wednesday 15:30 BST
Live on ITV and streamed on https://www.crictime.com/home.htm

Mumbai

The Indians started IPL5 impressively, beating Chennai in Chennai. But Tendulkar got injured in that game and they've lost a bit of their cool, falling well short at home to Pune and only sneaking past Deccan with Rohit Sharma's last-ball six.

Harbhajan led Mumbai to the Champions League, but he might do his best work under the calming influence of Tendulkar. It is not yet clear whether the Little Master's finger will let him return for this match.

Rajasthan

Rahul Dravid has quickly worked out a winning formula: bat first at home. It's worked in 2/2 games so far, but is out of the question on Wednesday - this match is in Mumbai.

Dinesh Chandimal has arrived in India. The young wicketkeeper-batsman scored runs in Sri Lanka's domestic T20 competition and might push Owais Shah out of the team.

Venue & conditions

This is the Wankhede's second match of IPL5. First time out, Mumbai barely made it to three figures in pursuit of Pune's 129/9. The Indians have now won only half of the eight matches they've played here since the start of IPL4.

Match Odds

Mumbai are the favourites, but [1.59] seems a little short for a team that was only one ball away from losing both of its last two matches. Recent history suggests home advantage does not mean much to them and backing the increasingly confident Royals at [2.6] looks a much better thing to do - all the more so if Tendulkar is ruled out again.

Top Mumbai Batsman

Tendulkar's been away and four different men have won this market (James Franklin and Dinesh Karthik shared the honours against Pune).

If the main man is fit again, could Franklin's place in the team be under threat? An injury limits his ability to bowl and his batting has been seriously slow too: before Tuesday's games, 20 men had made more than 50 runs in the competition so far; among them, Franklin's SR was 84, everyone else's was above 107.

Top Rajasthan Batsman

Ajinkya Rahane (98) and Brad Hodge (44) have each won this market once already. Rahane was out for a duck last time and the Royals' traditional emphasis on teamwork makes theirs among the more difficult Top Batsman markets to call.

Highest 6 Over Total

Rajasthan's combined score from the opening six overs of each of their first two games is a very solid 94/1. The Indians reached 53/0 during the same period of their match in Chennai, when they were chasing a small total, but have subsequently managed 27/3 and 29/2 (in Tendulkar's absence).

Lasith Malinga can ruin anyone's top-order in this format, but doesn't always open the bowling for the Indians. If Harbhajan holds him back, then Rajasthan might not hold back and [2.2] would be a good price for them to win this market.

Best Bet: Back Rajasthan @ [2.60]

*Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

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1. Anonymous | 11 April 2012

   if rajasthan bat first they win today....botha and rahane r da key players for rajasthan..

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