Indian Premier League - IPL / Edward Hammond-Kenny / 08 April 2010 /

Top play bottom and the only consolation for Kings XI fans is that things can't really get any worse. Mumbai may give JP Duminy a rare chance to show what he can do at the expense of Dwayne Bravo but Mumbai should wrap up yet another win says Edward Hammond-Kenny.

Venue and Conditions

The Friday game this week is a clash between top and bottom. The Mumbai Indians have won seven of nine so far and appear to be cruising into the semi finals, while the Kings XI Punjab have often played shambolic cricket and are rooted to the foot of the table, a position from where they can no longer make the final four.

If Punjab are looking for positives then you would think that this game being played at their home ground in Mohali would be one. Unfortunately for the Kings XI though, they are yet to win at home in this tournament. The home fans will still be out in force though and the Punjab team will not want to embarass themselves again in front of 30,000 of their faithful. The Mohali pitch tends to produce high-scoring matches, with the average 1st innings total here in the last three games being 182.

Team News

History suggests that once a team has been knocked out of the IPL they tend to make a number of unexpected changes to give squad players a chance. Only time will tell whether Punjab will go down the same route or stick with their perceived strongest team, but there are a few changes we can expect to see for this game.

If their Aussie opener Shaun Marsh has recovered from his injury he should walk back into the team with Ravi Bopara, who found himself batting down at six in the last game, most likely to miss out. The Kings XI fast bowling has been a major disappointment, with Sreesanth likely to pay the penalty for his abject display against Rajasthan where he bowled three wicketless overs whilst conceding forty runs. To rub salt into the wound he was fined 20% of his match fee for sarcastically clapping the umpire, unwise in a tournament that takes fair play so seriously, that it has its own separate award for it. South African speedster Juan Theron also had an off game meaning Brett Lee must be in contention for a recall.

Mumbai have shown admirable consistency in team selection so far which has served them well but if they are to make a change then West Indian all-rounder Dwayne Bravo must be danger. He is averaging less than 10 with the bat while conceding nearly nine an over with the ball. His fielding is excellent but at the moment that seems to be all that is keeping him in the team. The South African JP Duminy continues to sit on the sidelines, probably wondering how bad someone needs to play before he get a game.


Match Odds

As is to be expected Punjab are the outsiders, available on site at odds of [2.5] to back, while Mumbai are [1.63].

Mumbai lost their last match to Chennai after a good old fashioned batting collapse. They will be hoping that this was a one-off and that their batsman find their consistency again. They will certainly have no better chance than against Punjab's wayward bowling attack.

There is no such simple solution for Punjab's woes, who are batting, bowling and fielding badly. If there is light at the end of the tunnel then it is the improved form of two of their star batsman, Mahela Jayawardene and Yuvraj Singh. If they are to overcome Mumbai then they will need a major innings from one, if not both of them.

Top Batsman

As mentioned above, Jayawardene and Yuvi are the most likely options for Punjab top bat on current form though Marsh must be considered if fit. Captain Kumar Sangakkara is a class player but is in terrible form and looks to be badly affected by his team's troubles. It will take a big leap of faith to back him at the moment.

Sachin Tendulkar top scored against Chennai despite retiring during his innings with dehydration. He should be back to full strength and the Punjab bowling should be cannon fodder to him in his current form. The Little Master's tournament batting average of 49 is twenty better than his nearest team mate. Both Saurabh Tiwary and Shikhar Dharwan are the most consistent of the other Mumbai options.

Featured Market

The batsman head to head market of Tiwary v Yuvraj may well hold some potential value. I would expect to see odds of about [2.0] the pair, though it wouldn't surprise me if Yuvraj was the favourite. Both are in reasonable form, though Tiwary averages 29 to Yuvi's 22 this tournament, and Punjab's bowling is far weaker than Mumbai's, so backing Tiwary in this market should be the bet.

Trivia

Sreesanth's fine for his indiscretion towards the umpire was 20% of his match fee, a whopping $9,000 US. I'm not sure there has been a better single example yet of the financial clout of the IPL than the knowledge that an apparently emotionally brittle fast bowler can command a fee of $45,000 a game.

Best Bet

Ed Hammond-Kenny says: Back Saurabh Tiwary to outscore Yuvraj Singh at odds of [2.0] or greater on their head to head market.

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