Indian Premier League - IPL / Ed Hawkins / 06 April 2011 /

Ed Hawkins has been spending days locked in his study trying to find a winner of the toughest tournament in the world to call. Here's what he has come up with. Follow him on Twitter here

Daunting is the word most associated with finding a winner for an IPL tournament. Look through each squad and you will find quality player after quality player who could make the difference. So and so have got Joe Bloggs you will discover, wide-eyed in excitement. Turn a page and your Eureka moment is usurped. But this lot have got Tom, Dick and Harry.

The best advice, oddly, is to not place too much store in brilliance the players. Every IPL franchise has an abundance of talent. Instead, search for team talent under these guidelines. Do they have a blaster at the top of the order? A finisher? An allrounder? A death bowler? A spin king? And, most importantly, glue. Who is the team man who will hold this dispirit bunch together?

In the first IPL that man was Warne with Rajasthan Royals. The following year it was 'great guy' Adam Gilchrist at Deccan while MS Dhoni, whose World Cup-winning powers have given him God-like status no matter where you are from, guided Chennai to success.
First of all we should rule out sides who do not have either the balance or the man to blend.

Delhi, under Virender Sehwag, who is not a great team man, lack a finisher so we say no thanks while although Kolkata Knight Riders and new franchise Pune have good-looking squads we are unsure about Gautam Gambhir and Yuvraj Singh who respectively lead. Yuvraj, surely, is too insular to make other guys tick.

Jollies Mumbai have the best squad but have relied too much on Sachin Tendulkar, Bangalore appear to lack a special character to bring their undoubted talent together (Sorry, Daniel Vettori just doesn't inspire me).

There is another major factor which must be considered, too. Will India's World Cup winners perform? It could be difficult, mentally and physically, for a nation's heroes to lift themselves for this tournament.

That opens up the possibility of bets on King's XI and Rajasthan. King's have nice balance - Shaun Marsh to whack it, Praveen Kumar to bowl at the death and the excellent Piyush Chawla to spin it. They don't deserve to be as big as [16.00] although their failure to pick up as many fringe India players as possible is to their detriment. Still, in Gilchrist they have the 'good guy'.

Rajasthan, as always, are overpriced. They have got the lot, largely thanks to the brilliant Shane Watson, Ross Taylor, spinner Johan Botha and the unforgettable Shane Warne. There is no downside to nibbling the [18.50].

Deccan, under Kumar Sangakkara, may not be far off, either. Our top pick, though is Kochi, another new franchise. They fit the bill nicely at [13.00].

Mahela Jaywardene, one of the most decent men in the game, leads a quality squad. Each of the five other key elements are covered. Brendon McCullum is a hitter, Brad Hodge and Jayawardene finishers, Thisara Perera the allrounder and Muttiah Muralitharan and Ravindra Jadeja for spin.

They are packed with India bowling talent, too. RP Singh is the top IPL wicket-taker, Sreesanth was joint-second in 2008 and Vinay Kumar fifth last year. India talent is crucial because it is the home players who have to step up to fill in gaps left by overseas players.

Kochi have done well in this regard. As have Chennai, last year's winners, who have retained much of their squad. We would not put you off backing Dhoni's powerful collection of performers, but at odds of [7.00] we guess you already knew that.

Best bets: Kochi to win IPL @ [13.00], back-to-lay Rajasthan @ [18.50]

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