Indian Premier League - IPL / Ed Hawkins / 05 April 2010 /

Mumbai have lost only once in IPL3 but on Tuesday they come up against a Chennai team who have smashed the tournament batting record. Something has got to give so Ed Hawkins tries to find each team's weak point.

Team news
The Super Kings, like the fags some would like to believe they were named after, left us breathless last time out when they posted the highest IPL score of 246 against Rajasthan. They are unlikely to make a change as a result.

Doug Bollinger, the Australian paceman, is another who lived up to his name. After his four overs went for just 15 runs against the Royals, the champagne was very much on ice to celebrate Chennai's fourth win.

Mumbai may make changes. The stellar bowling line-up of Zaheer Khan, Lasith Malinga and Harbhajan Singh have played in every game and with a semi-final spot virtually assured, it would be wise to give them a rest. Dilhara Fernando could come in for example.

There is also a case to be made for JP Duminy being given a run before the semis. The South African is yet to play and Ryan McLaren could make way given that JP can bowl useful overs.

Venue and conditions
The Chidambaram stadium wicket looks a pretty good one for batsmen. And if that's not an understatement, I don't know what is. Chennai's massive 246 against the Royals came from nowhere, though. Previous first-innings totals of 161, 136 and 190 gave little clue. Although we do not expect a repeat, the smart money will be on a first-innings score of more than 180 given the stellar willow men on show.

Match odds
We're going to have a little nibble on Chennai for this one at [2.20]. The layman's argument that no team containing Matthew Hayden, MS Dhoni and Muttiah Muralitharan should be odds-against is perfectly fair but we can get a bit more in-depth than that.

Granted Mumbai appear to be an unstoppable juggernaut but had Deccan or King's XI been on their game at the death of innings, there could have been an extra digit added to the Indians' loss column. Deccan do not have a decent death bowler so were unable to restrict Mumbai while King's XI imploded under pressure in the field in a tight chase.

Chennai could well make a fatal mistake in the match but with confidence soaring with the bat and Bollinger giving much-needed control in the field, they have a better chance than the odds suggest. Indeed, if Bollinger can go for fewer than seven an over and Murali can do likewise (his economy rate for the tournament is 6.91) then we are sure that Chennai will at the least trade sub [2.00].

Top batsman
In the four matches played at this venue in IPL3 an opener has top-scored five times, the most notable being Murali Vijay who produced one of the best Twenty20 batting performances with 127 off 56 balls against the Royals. Another Vijay day is likely to be well-backed.

When these sides met previously (won by Mumbai by five wickets) Suresh Raina was top scorer for Chennai. Sub Badrinath also hit a half-century. Hayden is the perennial jolly for Chennai and it could be argued a big score is around the corner. He has starts in four of his last five innings but is unlikely to fancy the spin of Harbhajan with the new ball.

Sachin Tendulkar has top scored five times (one shared honours) in eight matches. He has not done so in the last two games, though. The Little Master whacked a half-century in the previous meetings.

Other options include wicketkeeper Ambati Rayudu, who has two high scores to his name and Kieron Pollard. Pollard needs to bat higher up the order.

Featured market
Before Chennai's onslaught against Rajasthan, we could have confidently predicted that Mumbai would have outscored Chennai in the first six overs. The Indians had a run rate of 9.47 - the highest of the eight teams. Chennai went at 7.40 - the lowest. Mumbai are [1.64] to prove the stats right. Mumbai also have three bowlers (Malinga, McLaren and Zaheer) in the top-ranked bowlers in the first 36 balls.

Trivia
Bollinger has followed in the footsteps of Shane Warne and Graham Gooch by visiting an advanced hair studio. Formerly known as the Bald Eagle, Bollinger's new nickname is the hardly imaginative Hairy Eagle.

Ed Hawkins says: back Chennai at [2.20]

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