England Cricket / Ed Hawkins / 14 June 2011 /

England are looking to wrap up the series against Sri Lanka in the first Test to be played at Hamshire's Rose Bowl from Thursday. Ed Hawkins has the soundest betting advice

England
James Anderson has declared himself fit to return from the side strain that kept him out of the second Test at Lord's. He will replace Steven Finn or Stuart Broad, with the former looking the most vulnerable.

Finn took four wickets at HQ and Broad has six in two matches but it would be a surprise if a safety-first England opted to lengthen their tail by leaving out the Nottinghamshire man.

Sri Lanka
The tourists have suffered a blow with the loss of Tillakaratne Dilshan to a broken thumb. Dilshan scored a brilliant 193 in the second Test to ensure Sri Lanka managed a draw and they will miss his prowess.

Kumar Sangakkara, who stepped down as captain before the tour, will lead in Dilshan's absence while Lahiru Thirimanne, the 21-year-old left-hand opener, is expected to open after impressing with a century against Essex.

Venue and conditions
The forecast is not the best for Southampton but it is not bad enough for us to be considering a back of the draw on that basis alone. Light rain is forecast on day one with heavy stuff on day two. It improves from there, however.

Anderson, who has been training at the Rose Bowl, has had a look at the wicket and kindly provides this pitch report: "It's going to be hard for us to get 20 wickets here, especially if the wicket is going to be as flat as it looks."

He may well be right. In four County Championship matches at the venue this term, the eight first-innings totals give us an average of 368.

Match odds
With the weather forecast as it is and indications that the pitch is pretty flat, we can expect to see early movement on the draw price. Currently it is [1.93] and that could go below [1.50] on day one.

England are [2.44] and by association it is, of course, an attractive price. Throughout the series this column has been keen on the hosts, citing the Sri Lankans' lack of experience in swinging conditions.

With the loss of Dilshan, their best batsman, it would not be a surprise to see Andrew Strauss' men wrap up a 2-0 win. The dilemma, as ever, is when to back them. They should rise on day one - if they bat first - but for those who want an ante-post wager, the advice is to go with England.

Sri Lanka are [13.00]. With a green opening pair, by the way, don't be surprised by early carnage when they bat.

Top England batsman
The run machine that is Alastair Cook shares favourite status with Jonathan Trott. Cook, with 335 runs and Trott, with 263, are both [4.50]. They are also the same price for a 50 in first innings - [2.12]. Kevin Pietersen is a man in need of runs. Averaging 25 his place could come under threat looking ahead to India's arrival. He is [2.74] to lay for a 50.

Top Sri Lanka batsman
In the absence of Dilshan, much rests upon the shoulders of Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene. Sangakkara is having a poor time - consistent to previous trips to England - and he averages just 15. Jayawardene is only nine runs better. They are both [3.50]. There is not much value either with Thilan Samaraweera, who despite being admirably solid, is too short at [4.50].

England innings runs
The market is wise to the Rose Bowl trends. England are as short as [2.20] for 475 or more. That is skinny indeed and tempting to lay.

Best bet: England @ [2.23]

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: