England Cricket / Ed Hawkins / 08 September 2011 /

If there is a time to back India to break their duck on their horror tour it is now, says Ed Hawkins ahead of the third one-day match at The Oval on Friday

England
The loss of Eoin Morgan, who has been ruled out of the series with a shoulder injury, is obviously a blow. Morgan is probably one of the finest middle-order batsmen in the world and by definition is England's MVB. His place went to Ravi Bopara for the win in Southampton and although Bopara acquitted himself well, the hosts have definitely been weakened.

India
The hosts' injury worries pale into insignificance to the tourists'. It is important to remember for this contest on a dreamy batting wicket that India have lost virtually all of the players who could have made England suffer and toil: Sachin Tendulkar, Gautam Gambhir and Virender Sehwag will miss and Indian-style wicket.

A call-up for RP Singh, the fast bowler, is a possibility with India short on class with the ball. The best chance could well be to attack with an army of spinners against a naive England middle-order.

Venue and conditions
It is the weather that has been the most dominant factor so far. Rain ruined proceedings at Chester-le-Street and almost put paid to chances of a game at the Rose Bowl. The forecast suggests there will be no rain, although that could change in these capricious times. For now, sunny spells are expected.

The average first-innings score in the last 10 OODIs is a very healthy 261. During that sequence, two sides have posted 300 or more and two sides have got past 290.
There is no discernible toss bias with 11 sides in the last 20 matches having won batting second.

Match odds
At the start of the series, this game would have been pencilled in as an India victory. Why? Because historically England struggle on flat pitches when there is no seam and swing movement to assist their bowlers. Touring batsmen, frustrated by movement all tour, are suddenly able to cut loose.

India may well do that. They still have quality batsmen capable of hitting through the line with confidence on this true surface. But we are not wagering on such a scenario at [2.56]. We are wagering on them stopping England's batsmen doing the same.

Certainly, if India were to bat first we could see their pace attack - they are desperately short of a strike bowler who can hurry batsmen in the middle overs - succumbing. Anything India get, Praveen Kumar, Munaf Patel and Vinay Kumar could fritter away.

England are [1.63]. That is not the sort of price we like to get involved with. So India could be the pick if they chase, although bear in mind that getting with them at the innings break, if they are chasing a big one, could be the best way to go.

Top England batsman
Alastair Cook is impressing in his role as a one-day opener. He is likely to go off at around [4.5] for top bat after his fine show at the Rose Bowl. But this could be Craig Kieswetter's chance to shine. He showed good form on Tuesday and this surface suits his style perfectly. He will be around the same price and you can get on safe in the knowledge that he top scored there last time.

Top India batsman
There is nothing wrong with India's front three of Parthiv Patel, Ajinkya Rahane and Rahul Dravid. Each man looks in nick and could make hay. We have an inkling for Suresh Raina at odds of [6.00] plus, though. It is a concern that he does not come in until No 5 but he has looked at his best in the limited-overs format.

Recommended Bet
Back India to beat England @ [2.53]

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