Michael Vaughan: Match tough to call, Dravid set to shine

England Cricket / Michael Vaughan / 02 September 2011 /

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Rahul Dravid is a class act in all forms of the game

"The better bet for the match may be to side with Rahul Dravid to top score for India. He was in imperious form during the Test series, often trying to single-handedly save India from defeat. He has plenty of experience of English conditions and looked good in the T20 the other night so clearly hasn’t had a problem making the transition from the five-day game to the shorter stuff."

Batting second could be a big advantage here so a pre-match bet is a dangerous game to play. A safer bet is to back the in-form, super-experienced and ultra-reliable run machine that is Rahul Dravid to top-score for India, says Michael Vaughan.

The wicket at Durham is generally a good one that doesn't really deteriorate that much. It's actually one of the rare grounds where chasing a total can often be easier than defending one, especially in cases like this where we have an early start and you don't have to bat second under lights.

Another reason why bowling first is a good option is that there's sometimes some moisture in the wicket right at the start. This gives the bowling side a good chance of taking two or three early wickets, which could make all the difference. I'd expect both MS Dhoni and Alastair Cook to choose to have a bowl if they win the toss. A normal score at the Riverside is somewhere between 250 and 300; it's not one of those grounds where we often see 300 or more being posted. Anywhere around 280-290 may well be enough.

India's best chance of winning matches in this ODI series will be to chase as often as possible because their bowlers simply don't look good enough to defend modest scores. Zaheer Khan, Harbajhan Singh and Sreesanth are pretty much their three best bowlers in ODI cricket and they're all back home rather than taking to the field over here. Their much-vaunted batting line-up looked pretty vulnerable in the Tests but I'm a big fan of Virat Kohli as I've said already, while the lad who opened in the T20 the other day - Ajinkya Rahane - looked a good, aggressive player. And we know that Suresh Raina and MS Dhoni prefer the limited-overs format to the Test arena.

So given that they're more suited to chasing and that this is a bowl-first wicket I'm cautious of siding with England pre-match at a shortish [1.68]. That said, if England do bowl first I think India will struggle to defend anything less than 300. With no real value on either side the best strategy for the match odds market may be to back whoever is chasing, though if that's England, that [1.68] will all be gone. Quite a dilemma...

The better bet for the match may be to side with Rahul Dravid to top score for India. He was in imperious form during the Test series, often trying to single-handedly save India from defeat. He has plenty of experience of English conditions and looked good in the T20 the other night so clearly hasn't had a problem making the transition from the five-day game to the shorter stuff. He'll probably keep his number three slot so will face plenty of deliveries and have all the time he needs to pace his innings. The Wall is my stonewall wager!

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