England Cricket / Michael Vaughan / 28 July 2011 /

The momentum is with England after Monday evening's events and they can go 2-0 when we head to Nottingham, where conditions will assist the bowlers and mean the match is unlikely to go the distance.

We're in profit for this Test series courtesy of England's superb win. None of our top batsman bets came good but a pre-match back of England at [3.5] plus another mid-match top-up at [2.7] ensured we have some winnings in the bank to re-invest for the second Test.

There were endless positives to take from England's performance. The fact they took 20 wickets on a traditionally good batting track against arguably the best batting line-up in the world; the manner in which the bowlers worked together as a unit; and the way England fought back in their second innings from 62-5 down to post a target that India were never going to be able to chase. People will remember this match for Kevin Pietersen's double-century and England's bowling display on the last day but the passage of play in which Matt Prior and Stuart Broad put together a superb partnership to take the game away from MS Dhoni's team was arguably the key session. Had it not been for that partnership, India could have been chasing 300 to win the Test and I would have fancied them to make that. Those runs may well have been the difference between England being 1-0 up or 1-0 down.

Brilliant though England's win was, we have to remember that they did it without having to face India's key bowler, Zaheer Khan, for most of their two innings. Had he been able to bowl it's not unreasonable to suggest that England would have fallen a good 150 runs short of their aggregate total. India are sweating on the fitness of the left-arm paceman and will be desperate to have him back as they go about repairing the damage from Lord's.

On to Trent Bridge then, a venue I highlighted pre-series as a result wicket. The ball generally swings here and life is always pretty hard for whoever has to open the innings on the first morning; the captain who wins the toss will normally choose to have a bowl. Assuming Chris Tremlett is fit after a couple of niggles, he'll retain his place in the England side but if he doesn't make it, Tim Bresnan is likely to step in. As for India, should Zaheer Khan miss out, Dhoni will have pretty much a straight choice to make between Munaf Patel and Sreesanth and the latter is probably favourite to get the nod. India may also try to think of a way of getting Yuvraj Singh into the side, a man who has plenty of experience of playing over here and can be a destructive batsman at his best.

I said before the first Test that England were a far better side in their own conditions and that looked to be the case over the course of the five days in north-west London. Trent Bridge is far more of an "English wicket" than Lord's so with their tails up after going 1-0 up and the fact that Khan will either miss out or not be fully fit, we have to keep faith in England at [2.16] to win again. Previous England sides may have taken their foot off the gas somewhat after such a great result but this current team has an incredible hunger and determination about them. They've targeted that number one spot in the Test rankings for a while and, now that they're so close to achieving it, they're certainly not going to be guilty of any complacency.

For my second bet I'm going to go with a bit of a long shot, but one I think represents real value. So far all of England's four Tests this summer have gone to the final session of the final day but I think that may be about to change at Trent Bridge. There will be a lot more in the wicket for the bowlers to exploit and I have a feeling those with tickets for day five could well be making enquiries about refunds nearer the time. With the forecast looking good, I'm going to take a punt that the match will finish in the evening session of day four.

Recommended Bets:

3pts Back England to win the second Test @ [2.16]
2pts Back Day Four - Evening in the Test Match End market @ [8.0]

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