England Cricket / Ed Hawkins / 25 August 2010 /

England and Pakistan meet at Lord's from Thursday in the final Test of a series which has suddenly come alive. Ed Hawkins previews the contest, and points you in the direction of a value bet

Team news
England are expected to keep faith with the same XI which fixed the lights for Pakistan at the end of the tunnel. Their only option is to bring in Tim Bresnan, who has been a consistent squad member despite offering no genuine potential as a specialist batsman or bowler. Perhaps he's good at carrying bags.

Pakistan could recall Umar Gul, who is apparently winning his fitness fight. Gul's hamstring kept him out of The Oval Test, although it would be harsh to drop Whab Riaz, whose five wickets in the first innings powered Pakistan's victory charge.

Venue and conditions
The Oval has long held the reputation as the best batting surface in the country but Lord's is not far behind. England certainly rate it the best. On the last six occasions they have batted first there, they have passed 500 four times.

England's average first-innings total since 2000 is a massive 450. The average first-innings total overall during that period is 373.

In 2006, England and Pakistan stupefied the nation with a bore draw. England posted 528 and Pakistan replied with 445. However, the domination of ball over bat makes it difficult to believe a tally being added to of seven draws in the last 20 Tests, particularly with a good weather forecast.

Match odds
In July at Lord's, Pakistan's admirable trio of fast bowlers - Mohammad Aamer, Mohammad Asif and Umar Gul - bowled Australia out for 253 and 334. Their less admirable batsmen were bowled out for 148 and 289. And so the tone of the summer was set.

Had Pakistan picked Mohammad Yousuf from the start of the series against England, it is possible that they would not be going into the final Test needing a victory to avoid defeat. Still, it is that first match which is most relevant.

Pakistan are about to play their sixth Test in seven weeks, a gruelling schedule which must surely take its toll, in particular on Aamer and Asif. That is what puts us off about taking the [6.40].

Nor should we forget that Pakistan are dreadfully inconsistent - only twice since 2000 have they won consecutive Tests in a series, totalling 77 games. England have lost two Tests in succession at home once in nine years.

Given their fine batting record at HQ, and the nagging feeling that they really need only to dismiss Yousuf relatively cheaply to get the upper hand, England look value at [1.84], a price inflated by that Oval slip. The draw is [3.20].

Top batsman
Unsurprisingly, England's batsmen have enviable records at HQ. Andrew Strauss, who has top-scored twice in seven Tests, has an average of 62, Alastair Cook 59.8, Kevin Pietersen 67.5, Paul Collingwood, who hit 186 against Pakistan in 2006, 40.5 and Matt Prior 50.1

Strauss, who has the worst record of any England batsmen over the last 12 months, made 128 in the second innings against Pakistan four years ago, is [5.10]. Collingwood is [7.40].

Yousuf is [4.50] for top Pakistan bet. Arguably he should be sub [4.00]. MoYo has very little to beat. His 202 last time at Lord's, a brilliant record against England and signs of form (he got a 50 at The Oval) makes him unmissable.

Featured market
MoYo is [2.42] for 50 in first innings while Yasir Hammed, who looks an organised player, is [3.35]. Strauss is as skinny as [2.18] for a half-century. Eoin Morgan, also on his home ground, is [2.36].

Ed Hawkins says: back M Yousuf for top Pakistan bat at [4.50]

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