England Cricket / Ed Hawkins / 19 July 2011 /

On Thursday at Lord's England and India meet in the 2,000th Test match in history. Ed Hawkins previews the big occasion

England
England are in reasonable shape, having enjoyed a series victory over Sri Lanka, although not in the cosy manner that they would have wished. Their selection dilemma revolves around only two players: Tim Bresnan or Stuart Broad?

In truth it is not much of a quandary. Broad will probably get the nod although there is confusion over his role in the team. Andy Flower bristled when Broad was described as "enforcer". The coach said "I hate this word". Odd then as that was exactly how bowling coach David Saker described him.

India
India will be almost unrecognisable from the side that took to the field for the third and final Test against West Indies in Dominica, largely because Sachin Tendulkar, Gautam Gambhir, Zaheer Khan and Yuvraj Singh are available again.

Zaheer will replace probably Munaf Patel, forming a three-man pace attack with Ishant Sharma and Praveen Kumar. Gambhir could open with Rahul Dravid.

Venue and conditions
It's Lord's. You know the drill. Runs, runs and, for good measure, a bit more runs. The average first-innings score in the last 10 Tests is 421. Five of the last 10 Tests have been stalemates, including the match against Sri Lanka in June.

With both batting line-ups impressive, we can see the draw price heading south rapidly indeed so a lay-to-back is a strong option. The surface is such a belter to bat on that in the last ten Tests, the side bowling in the last match innings would have needed an average of 140 overs to take 10 wickets. It's a sobering stat for those considering getting with either team.

The weather forecast is pretty good. There are only light showers predicted on days one and three.

Match odds
The draw price is dominant. It is already as short as [1.83] which means that one of the outfit's odds have to suffer. So it is India, unsurprisingly, who are shunted out to a massive-looking [6.40].

If we were able to get such odds at any other venue in this four-Test series we would devour them given that the teams are closely matched. What puts us off getting with India at Headquarters is their poor record in opening Tests of a series.

Historically they take time to find their feet, particularly on the road when they have suffered from a lack of preparation. One warm-up against Somerset does little to allay fears about a sequence of four wins in their last 12 starts. Don't forget they are the No 1 ranked side in the world to put that dip sharply into focus.

England are [3.30] and will hope to exploit this weakness. They almost did so when the sides met at HQ in 2007, reducing India to 282-9 in the last innings before they ran out of time.

Top England batsman
Alastair Cook has six hundreds in his last 10 Tests. It is a remarkable sequence. So it is more than fair that he is [4.90] favourite to top score in the first innings. He is [2.12] for a 50 and [3.10] for another ton.

Still, we won't be backing him because we reckon Zaheer will be the sternest opening bowler he has faced for some time. Ditto Andrew Strauss, who has fallen to him five times in five matches. Ian bell has suffered an identical fate. Jonathan Trott, who has an average of 126 at HQ is [5.10] for top bat and [2.20] for a 50.

Top India batsman
Tendulkar has never made a 50 in seven attempts at Lord's. He is [1.83] for a 50, [3.20] to notch his 100th international hundred and [4.00] for top bat, a price he shares with Gautam Gambhir.

Best bet: England or India for 400 1st innings runs or more @ [2.03]

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