England Cricket / Ed Hawkins / 08 July 2011 /

The weather could have the biggest say in the one-day series decider but Ed Hawkins reckons Sri Lanka remain overpriced at Old Trafford on Saturday

England
The hosts are almost certain to be unchanged following their ten-wicket victory at Trent Bridge on Wednesday. Still, their balance could be better.
There remains a suspicion that Alastair Cook and Jonathan Trott cannot play in the same team and that Ian Bell is being wasted at No 6. They could also strengthen their batting by playing allrounder Samit Patel.

Sri Lanka
With Old Trafford having a reputation for spin, Sri Lanka will consider a recall for Ajantha Mendis, their mystery twirler. Otherwise much will rely in three of a much-vaunted top four: Mahela Jayawardene, Tillakaratne Dilshan and Kumar Sangakkara.

Venue and conditions
All eyes will be on the weather forecast after four matches which have been dictated by rain or shine. When it has been fine, Sri Lanka have won. When it has not been, England have been to the fore.

Early indications favour England. Heavy rain is forecast, which should mean seam and swing if the players can get onto the field.

With the potential for curtailed play or a reduced overs affair, we should immediately think that big runs are unlikely to be in the offing. An average first-innings score over the last 10 matches of 210 back that up, too. In eight games since 2000, there has been a fifty-fifty toss split.

We should check prices for a first innings score of 250 or more and look to lay while it may also pay dividends to get against the highest individual score at 82.5 runs.

Match odds
England are getting shorter but they are not getting better. They are [1.54] to claim the series with Sri Lanka [2.52].

Yet it is a conundrum for punters. When conditions favour neither side, Sri Lanka are on a different plane. They have the better batsman and the more dangerous death bowlers.

But it gives us an uncomfortable feeling backing them under leaden skies because batting against swing bowling is their greatest weakness.

Still, it is not as an uncomfortable feeling as backing England at short odds. With Lasith Malinga in particular Sri Lanka have the potential to be dangerous with the ball and a shorter game if rain interevenes would also favour them.

Top England batsman
Cook and Craig Kieswetter are leading from the front with 267 and 161 runs respectively. Cook is the [4.60] favourite with Kieswetter [5.20]. Eoin Morgan, a favourite of this column, is as big as [7.00]. That is almost certainly overpriced.

Top Sri Lanka batsman
Jayawardene ([4.1]) is the favourite for the tourists. Sangakkara, who hit a half-century in Nottingham, is [4.60]. Dilshan is [4.7].

Best bet: Sri Lanka @ [2.52]

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