England Cricket / Ed Hawkins / 10 September 2011 /

Ed Hawkins analyses the penultimate one-day match as India look to record a victory at Lord's on Sunday

England
A cosy 2-0 up with two to play, England could be forgiven for resting on their laurels. But how can they improve?

Perhaps a call for Steve Finn could be the order of the day, particularly to make use of the slope at Headquarters. Jade Dernbach, whose slower ball is becoming telegraphed, could be vulnerable after a relatively expensive show at The Oval.

There is little they can do about the batting. After Eoin Morgan was ruled out England refused to call up a replacement. The middle order looks a little brittle although Jonathan Trott's presence is a comforting sight.

India
It is difficult to know where India go from here, selection wise. They shuffled their pack but could still not come up with a winning hand.

At least Ravi Jadeja came to the party. His man of the match display at The Oval was a joy to behold for India supporters starved of individual performance this summer. Ravi Ashwin was not bad, either. His cameo with the bat and three wickets with the ball would have pleased those who have rated him from his IPL days.

Venue and conditions
The average first innings scores at Lord's in the last 10 ODIs is 228. But the surface looks flatter than such a figure would suggest. There is no toss bias to speak of but England have rather a lame record, losing 13 of their last 19. The forecast is good with only light rain in the morning unlikely to hold up play.

Match odds
With one game to come after this contest at Lord's, India, without a win on tour, are drinking in the last chance saloon. The lights have just been turned on, the music has stopped and the barman is giving them an anxious glance.

The conundrum for punters is that at [2.48], they look decent value. Certainly there is not the gulf between the teams that the odds suggest. England are [1.66].

India are just so untrustworthy, however. Batting first on a historically good wicket at The Oval, the bettor did not demand perfection but just a run for his money.

But India contrived to lose five wickets for 58 runs. The match was gone, so too trading opportunities until late and long in the day.

HQ offers them another opportunity. If they can bat first and go well, then their price, inevitably, will come down. The ball should not swing as much as it did in south London. They can play with freedom.

But you take such a trade with your eyes open. And it is certainly not one to raise a glass to.

Top England batsman
Craig Kieswetter is a man to trust when the surface is flat and true. He has impressed in his last two outings and on a Lord's featherbed he may be capable of the sort of score that his Somerset opening partner, and England star of yore, Marcus Trescothick, used to rocket up there. He looks value for top bat - and on runs markets, too.

Top India batsman
At The Oval on Friday, Suresh Raina reminded all adults of the days when a parent would say 'go to your room and don't come out until you've thought about what you did'. His stroke in crisis was a scandal. Good touch or not, how can we trust someone capable of such impetuous swishes? Rahul Dravid is one to avoid, too. He looks as though he has mentally checked out after he spotted that he was in danger of being run out and then slowed up for confirmation.

Recommended Bet
India back-to-lay @ [2.48]

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