Cricket Bets: Collingwood must play and England must bat first

England / Will Smith / 22 March 2011 /

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Paul Collingwood and Andrew Strauss are all smiles but the skipper has a tough decison to make as to whether to include the Durham all-rounder in the quarter-final match

"Now is the time for the match-winners and in Collingwood you have someone who can win matches with bat, ball and in the field. His value to the team is only truly realised when he’s not there."

Durham star Will Smith makes his betting.betfair debut by telling us about his County team-mate Paul Collingwood's role in the England team, how to go about tackling Sri Lanka and why Australia have it all to do against India.

For England, the knockout stages began a game early, as a fluctuating group stage that seemed to change course not just every game, not just every innings, but virtually by the hour, left them needing to beat West Indies to all but ensure progress.

For many, the form of the team will be seen as a concern, but the team will garner vital confidence from the way that key moments within games have been met with a will to overcome, a will that separates teams that would like to win from the ones that WANT to win. To witness the celebrations after the South Africa and West Indies games would be to think that England had indeed won the whole tournament. After the long, hard few months most of this party have had, a slight drop in desire might not be avoidable, and perhaps even excused. Not a bit of it.

One of the main talking points to come from England's passage has been Paul Collingwood. I'm sure he will be the first to admit that he has not had the impact that he so determinedly strives for. Attempting to cast aside any Durham bias and assuming full fitness, he would be one of my first names on the team sheet for the quarter final. Now is the time for the match-winners and in Collingwood you have someone who can win matches with bat, ball and in the field. His value to the team is only truly realised when he's not there.

There would possibly be three candidates to make way: Ravi Bopara, Luke Wright or James Tredwell. It's a tricky choice as all three contributed to the win against the West Indies. Plus, factor in Michael Yardy's effectiveness on a spinning, low Colombo wicket and it is a tough choice to make. I just know Collingwood deserves to be there somewhere though.

Talking of the wicket at Colombo, if it is anything like the one used in the game between Australia and Pakistan in the most recent group game, then we are in for an enthralling contest. In all five group games at the venue, the team winning the toss has batted first, resulting in two wins, two losses and a washout when Sri Lanka played Australia.

When you consider that the two losses came when Kenya were 'Malinga-ed' and Australia lost to an unpredictable Pakistan side ( while in the washout Sri Lanka were on their way to a decent total) then it must be a 'win toss, bat first' wicket. Trying to manipulate Muttiah Muralitharan, Ajantha Mendis et al. will be mighty difficult if chasing down a formidable total. Add in Malinga's mix of reverse-swinging yorkers, slower balls and bouncers just before the mandatory 34th over ball change and any sizable total suddenly looks a long way off.

The best chance England have of winning is to bat first and bat well. That all four of Sri Lanka's top order - Tillakaratne Dilshan, Upal Tharanga, Kumar Sangakkara in particular, and Mahela Jayawardene - have scored heavily, is a double-edged sword. Yes these four are in confident form, but it also means that the middle/lower order, should it be subjected to pressure, aren't guaranteed to be as flowing. In a run-chase a lack of recent action can hinder and bizarrely, Sri Lanka's early dominance with the bat could create chances for England later on.

It is fair to say that whoever wins this quarter final would have a great chance of reaching the final, as the semi is at the same venue against New Zealand or South Africa, neither of whom have visited the R Premadasa in this tournament.

England will be feeling confident of their ability to handle the tough situations against the better teams, and could be about to ride a similar wave to the one that took them to the Twenty20 World title.

On the other side of the draw, you have to consider India the team to beat. Their lack of an out and out strike bowler is significantly countered by the guile of Zaheer Khan, and the lack of a match-winning spinner in Australia's ranks. Whichever of those two prevail would potentially then have to fend off the mercurial Pakistan, and history dictates that will not be easy.

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