World Cup Betting / Ed Hawkins / 10 February 2011 /

Ed Hawkins is certain that one of the big runs will fall by the wayside. He marks your card with the bet of the tournament. Follow him on Twitter here

The one thing we can be sure of in this World Cup is to expect the unexpected. On paper, each of the big eight teams should qualify for the quarter-finals. Form and the deep pools of talent they are able to dip into appears to guarantee it.

But it rarely works out like that. In the 2007 Bangladesh qualified for the next stage at the expense of giants India while Ireland dumped out Pakistan. Four years previously England, West Indies, Pakistan and South Africa fell at the first hurdle while Kenya made the semi-final. West Indies, England and Sri Lanka went out at the group stages in 1999, too.

The format of the tournament, of course, has changed over the years and this edition has been designed so that the big eight teams all make it through to the quarter-finals.

With eight teams qualifying from two groups of seven and 'minnow' nations making up the
numbers (Canada and Kenya in Group A and Ireland and Netherlands in Group B) progress looks relatively simple.

However, there are tricky obstacles to overcome. In Group A Zimbabwe hope to cause a shock or two while it is there is a high level of expectation of joint-hosts Bangladesh, who surely will never have a better chance of going deep into a tournament.

It is the ability of these two teams which make laying the Big Eight to qualify at around the [2.50] the standout bet of the tournament.

Zimbabwe look well-equipped to derail New Zealand's challenge. The Kiwis are hugely vulnerable. They lack class players and are in awful form, having lost 10 ODIs in a row between August and December last year. Their recent record in India and Bangladesh reads 0-9.

It would be remiss not to point out that Zimbabwe have had problems of their own and they are only just recovering from their status as the cricket's worlds pariahs. They suffered a player drain which had threatened to ensure they would never be welcomed back into the fold.

But they are a decent little unit. In Elton Chigumbura, the skipper, they have an allrounder comfortable with the tag in such auspicious surrounds while there are familiar names in the form of nuggety keeper Tatenda Taibu and wily spinner Ray Price.
Brendan Taylor provides the runs.

They are [4.10] to reach the quarter-finals but they will surely be bigger to beat the Kiwis when they meet in Ahmedabad on March 4.

As for Bangladesh, they must be licking their lips at the prospect of beating England, West Indies and South Africa. All three are vulnerable in the dustbowls of Mirpur or Chittagong with Shakib-al-Hasan and Abdur Razzak ready to tighten the noose.

Each of those teams have been strangled by Bangladesh before and it will be a major test of their qualification hopes. England, who are tired, poor tourists in that part of the world and shaky players of spin, look to be the most on edge.

Best bet: lay Big Eight to qualify at around [2.50]

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