Match Previews / Ed Hawkins / 01 April 2011 /

Ed Hawkins is on hand with all the stats, tips and trends ahead of the showdown in Mumbai on Saturday. Follow his in-running advice on Twitter here

London start time: 10.00

Team news
On the grandest of stages for the greatest of prizes, Sri Lanka are taking the biggest of risks. Muttiah Muralitharan will play despite not being fit. It is a major gamble and one which the 2007 runners-up do not need to take.

Sri Lanka need to find room for an allrounder at No 8 to take the pressure off their middle order. Currently Lasith Malinga is slated to come in at six down. That just does not wash.

Dropping a spinner would be ideal and if it is not Murali then Rangana Herath could make way for either Nuwan Kulasekara or Chamara Kapugedara, primarily a batsman. Allrounder Angelo Matthews has been ruled out with Suraj Randiv taking his place in the squad, making it more pressing they find batting back-up.

India could be without seamer Ashish Nehra who damaged a finger against Pakistan. That could mean a spot for spinner Ravi Ashwin or the wild Sreesanth. Otherwise they should be unchanged.

Venue and conditions
There have been only three ODIs played at the Wankhede stadium in the last five years so for the most important of matches we are guessing slightly as to the state of the surface. Of the last 10 day-nighters four have been won by the chasing outfit. The average score in the last six games (10 years) is 263. Sri Lanka made 265 against New Zealand in the group stages of the tournament on what looked to be quite a sluggish wicket.

Match odds
Sri Lanka are this column's tip for outright glory so we are quite happy to have the option to lay off at [2.68]. India are [1.59]. That is some gulf between the two. So is it justified?

Probably not. Sri Lanka have won three of the last five meetings and have been a more impressive unit in the tournament. Despite a loss to Pakistan, they have hammered sides while their semi-final victory over New Zealand was cosy.

India have been less than impressive. Their batting, including against Pakistan in the last four, has been prone to falter while Zaheer Khan is the only bowler Sri Lanka will fear.

Sri Lanka's weakness is their middle order, which had faced only 29 balls prior to the Kiwi game. If they can bolster their batting with someone who can hold the willow at No 8, then it is fair to say they are overpriced.

Top batsman - India
All eyes are on Sachin Tendulkar, who will go for his 100th ton. He is around [6.00] to get it. That's poor value when you consider he is around [7.00] for man of the match and around [4.00] for top bat. He is [2.18] for a 50. Tendulkar averages 55.54 in tournament finals.
India ODI averages v Sri Lanka in last five years: 57 Dhoni, 43 Sehwag, 42 Gambhir, 41 Kohli, 39 Tendulkar, 38 Yuvraj, 32 Raina.

Top batsman - Sri Lanka
Tillakaratne Dilshan (467 runs) has a lead of just three runs over Tendulkar in the race for top tournament runscorer. He is [4.50] for honours but Kumar Sangakkara (417) and Upul Tharanga (393) at numbers four and five in the charts respectively, are in the running. Sangakkara, who hit 111 against the Kiwis on this ground, is [4.20] with Tharanga [5.00].
Sri Lanka averages v India in last five years: 41 Dilshan, 36 Sangakkara, 33 Silva, Samaraweera, 28 Jayawardene, Tharanga, 26 Kulasekara

Featured market
Tendulkar is expected to go off at around [7.00] for man of the match. Given that he will only need to top score in an India win to get the gong - there won't be a dry eye in the house - then the value is clear.

Featured market
There have been 15 scores of more than 82 in 34 ODIs at the Wankhede. Going under 82.5 on highest individual score at [2.00] may be an option.

Best bet: Tendulkar for man of the match @ [7.00]

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