World Cup Betting: Sri Lanka v Pakistan

Match Previews / Ed Hawkins / 24 February 2011 /

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Umar Akmal and Shahid Afridi celebrate during their win over Kenya

"In the last five years the side batting first has won 14 times with only four successful chasers"

Ed Hawkins analyses the clash between Sri Lanka and Pakistan in Colombo on Saturday and he's found a couple of tasty wagers. Follow him on Twitter here

London start time: 09.00

Team news
Sri Lanka's aspirations of a second World Cup triumph face a stiff examination against Pakistan, the side your Ordinary Joe loves to hate. It promises to be a thrilling affair.

The Lankans, who are boosted by home advantage, could include Lasith Malinga in the XI after the fast man missed the opening victory over Canada with a niggle. Thilan Samaraweera or Ajantha Mendis could make way.

Pakistan (how unlike them) caused a surprise when they excluded spinner Saeed Ajmal for slow left-armer Abdur Rehman. It would be a relief to those who have backed them for outright glory if they saw sense.

Venue and conditions
The Premadasa in Colombo is an extraordinarily good batting surface. The first-innings average in the last 10 ODIs is a whopping 287. Six sides have passed 300 during that sequence.

So our first wager is obvious. We need to check prices for the side batting first to post more than 275 once the market settles.

There is also a toss bias which we must be aware of. In the last five years the side batting first has won 14 times with only four successful chasers.

Rain is around and there is an 81% chance of the wet stuff.

Match odds
That last stat makes up our mind about what we should do on the outright. It is a big enough skew to give us a clear strategy: back the side that bats first.

You are on to a perfectly good wager whichever team bats first. Sri Lanka, who are the more reliable outfit, will still rate value at around [1.53]. Pakistan, of course, likewise at [2.78].

The highest chase in recent times is England's 212 v Sri Lanka in October 2007 - 15 matches ago.

Top batsman - Sri Lanka
Despite the record for runs it is surprising to see some low numbers for Sri Lanka's batsmen. Tillakaratne Dilshan averages 33, Upul Tharanga 24, Mahela Jayawardene just 19 in 18 games and Kumar Sangakkara 28. The latter pair are shortest at [3.60] for honours. Dilshan is [4.20].

Top batsman - Pakistan
Runs for the Pakistanis. Umar Akmal has a century to his name from two visits. Misbah-ul-Haq averages 82 from two.

Featured market one
Ahmed Shehzad and Mohammad Hafeez average 24 for the first wicket in six ODIs. They are Pakistan's 15th opening combo in two years. Expect them to struggle again and lay them for 30 or more at around the [2.70] mark.

Featured market two
Malinga and Nuwan Kulasekara look to vying for top Sri Lanka bowler. They have strike rates of 29 and 28.8 respetively on the ground.

Best bets: back the side batting first, lay Pakistan opening p'ship for 30 or more at around [2.70]

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